FXUS64 KHGX 301024
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
424 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND NOW LIES
JUST OFFSHORE. MOST OF THE AREA HAS BEEN RAIN FREE BEHIND THE
FRONT THUS FAR BUT A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THUS WILL KEEP LIKELY
POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THROUGH MIDDAY. 

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY WITH
BOTH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASED LARGE SCALE LIFT OCCURRING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP A SFC LOW ALONG THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
TRACKING IT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE COASTAL BEND REGION. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES PAST SOME COASTAL FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
THE RESULTING ENE WINDS. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH WITH SOME ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
CLOSER TO THE COAST. RAINFALL WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS
CENTRAL TEXAS.

WITH CLEARING SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST OF
THE WEEK. MOST INLAND LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE. GFS
HAS ADVERTISED ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR SUNDAY OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS WHILE THE ECMWF FORECAST IS MUCH MORE ZONAL...KEEPING
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL GO AHEAD
AND LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS AT THE MOMENT BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE
BEYOND SATURDAY IS QUITE LOW. 38

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT JUST PUSHING OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN THE 
SLIGHTLY FASTER FROPA TIMES NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST 
AS SCA FLAGS ARE ALREADY UP. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING WITH THE DEVE- 
LOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF A COASTAL LOW TONIGHT/EARLY TUE FROM THE LOWER 
TX COAST UP TOWARD SABINE PASS. THIS SYSTEM TO BRING TURNING WINDS 
TO THE AREA (N-NW-W) BUT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY 
CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE LOW WILL DEEPEN/HOW QUICKLY IT SHIFTS NEWD. 
AT ANY RATE THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM TO OUR MARINE AREA SHOULD 
KEEP WINDS ELEVATED/ABOVE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDS NIGHT. 

ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE ALSO CONCERNS (REGARDING THE COASTAL LOW) 
WITH THE THREAT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. BUT AGAIN...THINGS WILL 
DEPEND ON THE TIMING/INTENSITY OF THIS GULF LOW DEVELOPMENT. STILL 
NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL REACH WARNING LEVELS...SO WILL 
KEEP THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT (CFW) GOING AS EXTRA HEADS UP FOR 
THE POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOODING - MAINLY ON TUES AOA HIGH TIDE. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
PER GOING RADAR TRENDS...WE SHOULD BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BULK 
OF THE PCPN BY THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE. THESE CURRENT IFR CONDITIONS 
WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR THE REST OF THE DAY BUT CONFIDENCE 
REMAINS LOW ON HOW ALL THIS WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING 
THE DEVELOPMENT/PASSAGE OF A COASTAL LOW OVERNIGHT (AS MODELS HAVE 
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE) WHICH SHOULD HAVE IMPACT 
ON PCPN/CIGS. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      54  46  49  43  54 /  40  50  70  60  20 
HOUSTON (IAH)              57  47  53  44  55 /  60  50  70  60  30 
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  53  53  47  58 /  60  60  80  60  30 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT 
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM 
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS 
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH 
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...41