FXUS61 KOKX 252208
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
508 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. A COASTAL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH
THURSDAY...THEN IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN HEAD THO THE CANADIAN MARITIME REGION THIS WEEKEND. RIDGING
WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL TAKE AIM ON THE AREA BY EARLY/MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH AN H95 INVERSION AND A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS...DRIZZLE AND FOG AROUND THROUGH
THE NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS MIXING IN. HIGHEST
CHC WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...WHERE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT WILL
ALSO BE. TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE
WATER...UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FURTHER INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THANKSGIVING DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY MINUS THE
PRECIP. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BLO A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION...WITH CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST PLACES. PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE
AFTN...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO DOMINATE AS A COASTAL LOW TAKES SHAPE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THU
AFTN...LOW TO MID 50S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SE STATES FROM THE PLAINS
CREATING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE STORM
WILL TRACK NNE...APPROACHING CAPE COD BY FRI MORNING. CHANCES FOR
RAIN INCREASE DURING THE AFTN...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THU NIGHT. SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE
DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN
OFFSHORE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AS IT
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL HELP TO STEER THE COASTAL LOW
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...AS WELL AS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION. THE COASTAL LOW QUICKLY INTENSIFIES DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AND SLOWER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY. GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND WE WILL MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR A WIND ADVISORY WITH FURTHER MODEL RUNS.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS
FOR INLAND SECTIONS AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT BY THIS TIME THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION IS SMALL. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
AREA...OWING PRIMARILY TO THE DIFFERENCES ON HOW THEY HANDLE ENERGY
FROM AN H5 TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS A TREND HOWEVER
TOWARDS A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GFS
HAS SPED UP THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...WHILE THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF IS SLOWER. WENT IN BETWEEN
THE TWO SOLUTIONS WITH THE IDEA THAT THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
DURING LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WENT NO HIGHER THAN CHC POPS FOR NOW
DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT BEST OVERALL CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE APPEARS TO BE RAIN...BUT SHOULD THERE BE
ANY INSTABILITY ALOFT TRIGGERING PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING...SOME OF
NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM WITH DRY WEATHER.
WENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY CONSIDERING DECENT COLD
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS SUBSIDENCE WOULD
LIMIT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER IN SPITE OF RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECTING IFR/MVFR IN -SHRA/DZ.
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE CIGS IMPROVING TO HIGH END MVFR
AFTER 04Z-06Z IN WAKE OF WEAK DISTURBANCE AND -SHRADZ...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON THIS. WITH SATURATED LOW-LEVEL THINKING
LOW-END MVFR AND IFR. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS...IFR
FOG WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING PUSH.
EXPECTING IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH A BIT OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DRYING ALOFT.
LIGHT WIND FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HRS.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING OR OCCURRENCE OF IMPROVING
CIGS AFTER 05Z.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
25/18Z 09007KT
25/19Z 09007KT
25/20Z 10006KT
25/21Z 11005KT
25/22Z 11004KT
25/23Z VRB03KT
26/00Z 00000KT
26/01Z 00000KT
26/02Z 00000KT
26/03Z 00000KT
26/04Z 00000KT
26/05Z 00000KT
KJFK...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING OR OCCURRENCE OF IMPROVING
CIGS AFTER 05Z.
KLGA...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING OR OCCURRENCE OF IMPROVING
CIGS AFTER 05Z.
KTEB...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING OR OCCURRENCE OF IMPROVING
CIGS AFTER 05Z.
KHPN...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING OR OCCURRENCE OF IMPROVING
CIGS AFTER 06Z.
KSWF...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING OR OCCURRENCE OF IMPROVING
CIGS AFTER 06Z.
KISP...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING OR OCCURRENCE OF IMPROVING
CIGS AFTER 07Z.
KBDR...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING OR OCCURRENCE OF IMPROVING
CIGS AFTER 07Z.
KGON...UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING OR OCCURRENCE OF IMPROVING
CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THURSDAY...BECOMING VFR BY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR LIKELY...WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH STRONG WEST WINDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WEST WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR LATE.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE KEPT THE SCA UP ON THE OCEAN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SEAS
REMAINING 4-5 FT IN A SE SWELL. A DISCERNIBLE TREND HAS NOT BEEN
ESTABLISHED AND DON'T HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT. EVE SHIFT CAN MONITOR AND
PULL IT. SAME STORY CONTINUES THROUGH THU NIGHT...SWELLS COULD
KEEP SEAS RIGHT AROUND 5 FT...BUT WILL LET MID SHIFT EXTEND IF
THEY REMAIN UP TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND ONSHORE
THROUGH THU...THEN BACK TO THE NW AND START TO INCREASE THU NIGHT
AS A COASTAL STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH.
AS THE COASTAL STORM PASSES EAST THEN NORTHEAST...STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP WHILE THE STORM CONTINUES ITS INTENSIFICATION.
WAVES WILL BUILD UP TO 9 FT ON THE OCEAN AND UP TO 5 FT ON THE SOUND
BEFORE COMING DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY FRIDAY...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
ON SATURDAY. THESE STRONG W WINDS WILL PUSH WATER OUT OF THE
SOUND...HARBOR AND BAYS...AND COULD CAUSE LOW WATER PROBLEMS.
CURRENT GFS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 2-3 FT BELOW ASTRONOMICAL
LEVELS FRI NIGHT AND 3-4 FT ON SAT. THIS WOULD REQUIRE A LOW WATER
ADVISORY...HOWEVER ITS TOO EARLY TO PUT UP AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED.
GALES MAY LAST INTO SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN
ZONES...OTHERWISE SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL
WATERS. SCA WOULD REMAIN ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS ON SUNDAY
MAINLY DUE TO SEAS UP TO 5 FT. AFTER A PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON
MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS AND EASTERN SOUND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL A COASTAL LOW
IMPACTS THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
