FXUS63 KOAX 272109
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
309 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MILD TEMPERATURES AND SUNSHINE TODAY BEFORE TEMPS RETURN TO CLOSER
TO NORMAL READINGS THIS WEEKEND. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL US...WITH RIDGE AXIS FROM TX
INTO CO...UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN BC THROUGH THE OR/WA
COAST...AND UPPER WAVE CENTERED NEAR THE CA/AZ BORDER. 500MB HT
FALLS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN US...WITH THE HIGHEST
READING /130M/ IN SWRN OR. 850MB WARM AIR AXIS EXTENDED FROM TX
THROUGH KS/NEB/SD INTO MT/ID. A WEAK FRONT EXTENDED OUT OF MB INTO
WRN NEB/ERN CO...BUT MOISTURE WAS SCANT ACROSS THE CNTRL US PER
AREA RAOBS. SFC LOW AT 19Z WAS CENTERED IN NERN ND...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING THROUGH CNTRL SD INTO ERN WY.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH TEMPS...AS WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN 
QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  FAST-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED 
TO DIVE FROM WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN GT LAKES THROUGH SAT 
NT...DRAGGING COLDER AIR INTO THE CNTRL US IN ITS WAKE.  WITH SCANT 
MOISTURE AND VERY LITTLE/WEAK LIFT IN THE AREA...SYSTEM WILL 
STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE PRECIP IN THE CWA...THOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD 
INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NT/SUN.  HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS IN 
MOST PLACES FOR TNGT WITH WEAK WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES /OR
JUST PATCHY CIRRUS/. MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE FALLING THROUGH
SAT...AND EXPECT TEMPS TMRW TO BE COOLER THAN TODAY EVEN WITH
HIGHER WINDS CREATING STRONGER MIXING. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO
NORMALS ON SUN/MON WITH COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE. SFC HIGH IS
PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH OR S OF THE CWA ON SUN NT/MON...BRINGING
WEAKENING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES THAT WILL LIKELY MAKE SUN NT
RATHER CHILLY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SUN NT TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
OTHERWISE...MADE FEW CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS POTENT SYSTEM RIDING DOWN THE 
FRONT SIDE OF AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OFF THE WEST COAST...AS 
WELL AS COLD AIRMASS PENETRATING THE LOWER 48. GFS/GEM/ECM 
DIFFERENCES WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF AFFECTING PLACEMENT OF SFC 
REFLECTION AND TIMING OF CAA. MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT 
SHOWING A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS PENETRATING SOUTHWARD...BUT 
PLACEMENT/TIMING IS IN QUESTION. GFS/GEM HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER 
SHOWING INITIAL SURGE OF CAA INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AFTN WITH THE 
ECM LAGGING BEHIND ABOUT 6HRS. ON WED...GEM SOLUTION IS QUICKEST 
PUSHING BRUNT OF CAA DEEP INTO THE SRN PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY THE ECM. 
AT THE SAME TIME THE GFS BEGINS TO DIVERGE AND ADVERTISES BEST CAA 
PLUNGE WILL BE EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DOWN THRU THE GREAT 
LAKES/OH VLY REGION. REMOP SHOWING LITTLE CONFIDENCE WRT NRN STREAM 
WAVE AND THEREFORE WILL LEAN CLOSER TOWARD MORE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY 
PER ECM/GEM SOLUTIONS. ALSO...NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH POTENTIAL FOR 
PCPN AND WILL THUS LEAVE DRY FCST IN PLACE. 

&&

.AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK 

27/18Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD