FXUS64 KLUB 062109
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
309 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SHORT TERM...
AS OF 19Z...A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG A LEVELLAND TO
WHITE RIVER LAKE TO PADUCAH LINE. THIS FRONT HAD LOST MOST OF ITS
FORWARD MOMENTUM AS IT HAS BEEN SLIPPING UNDER STOUT WSW WINDS ALOFT
/SITUATED SOUTH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA/. IN FACT...SOME OF THE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN
REALIZED ACROSS THE EXTREME SW ZONES WHERE THE DENVER CITY MESONET
HAS BEEN SUSTAINED NEAR 30 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
REGAIN ITS SOUTHWARD THRUST THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATES TO THE EAST AND THE SUN SETS. THE SW FLANK OF THE
BROAD SFC RIDGE SPRAWLING THE CENTER OF THE NATION WILL THEN REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND
HIGHS MONDAY STRUGGLING TO MAKE THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST.
OF NOTE...EARLIER MODEL INDICATIONS WERE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HIGH MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO RESULT
IN DENSE FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS...WITH BEST SFC SATURATION PROGGED
TO STAY WEST OF THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THUS...HAVE SHIFTED PATCHY FOG
MENTION WEST...THOUGH DID LEAVE ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES IN
THE CHANCE MODELS ARE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POST-FRONTAL DRYING.
ALSO...CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR MONDAY IS A TRICKY ONE. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MORE POTENT SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS TUESDAY.
EXPECT A WAA REGIME TO COMMENCE ON MONDAY OVER THE COLD DOME AT THE
SFC...THOUGH QUESTION REMAINS TO HOW MANY /IF ANY/ LOW CLOUDS WILL
FORM. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER OF NEAR
SATURATION AT MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOST SOUNDING INDICATE THE LAYER WILL REMAIN JUST
BELOW SATURATION. IF LOW CLOUDS DO FILL IN MORE THAN CURRENTLY
SUGGESTED IT WOULD MEAN THE RELATIVELY COOL FORECAST HIGHS MAY STILL
BE TOO HIGH.
&&
.LONG TERM...
FOCUS REMAINS ON POTENTIAL HIGH WIND EVENT TUESDAY. VERY TIGHT MID
LEVEL GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE ONTO THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTN. PROGGED GRADIENTS AS WELL AS 70+KT JET MAX AT 700MB WITH
EXPECTATION OF DEEP MIXING SUGGEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40+ MPH
SUSTAINED SEEM PROBABLE ON THE CAPROCK. GIVEN EVENT IS STILL ABOUT
48 HOURS AND SOME CHANGES IN MODEL PROJECTIONS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WILL DEFER TO NEXT SHIFT ON ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES.
RAPID LOW LEVEL DRYING IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AFTER
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A HUMID START TO THE DAY. THE GOOD RH RECOVERY
MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECTATION THAT DEW POINT TEMPS WILL STAY HIGH
ENOUGH TO KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA MAY SOMEWHAT
STIFLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG/DZ/RW- WITH
SMALL CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THOSE ERN AREAS.
REMAINDER OF THE FCST CONTINUES TO LOOK BENIGN WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPERATURE FCST COMPLICATED BY SOME INDICATIONS THAT
COLD AIR MAY STUBBORNLY HANG IN ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND HAVE SHOWN A SW/NE TEMP GRADIENT TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED
TOWARD FRIDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 17 39 31 56 19 / 0 0 10 10 0
TULIA 18 35 30 58 20 / 0 0 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 21 37 33 57 21 / 0 0 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 22 42 35 61 26 / 0 0 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 23 40 34 62 26 / 0 0 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 25 43 36 61 26 / 0 0 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 22 44 35 62 27 / 0 0 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 21 37 33 59 26 / 0 0 20 10 0
SPUR 25 40 35 65 28 / 0 0 20 10 0
ASPERMONT 29 41 35 67 32 / 0 0 20 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/07
