FXUS64 KBMX 300538
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1138 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS HAS SHIFTED EAST/DISSIPATED
ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING TO OUR WEST...MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.  THIS AREA WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.  WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN HIGH POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON LATEST OBS.

KSL

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS THAT TEASED NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR A 
TIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...THE MAIN COLD 
FRONTAL RAIN BAND HAS REALLY CONSOLIDATED...AND THERE IS CURRENTLY 
(AS OF 30/0530Z) STILL A LITTLE BIT OF THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. 
OBSERVATIONS AHEAD OF THE RAIN MASS SHOW CEILINGS REALLY DON'T LOWER 
UNTIL THE RAIN ARRIVES. SO I ADJUSTED THE FORECAST IN THE FIRST FEW 
HOURS TO BE A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CEILINGS AND RAIN 
CHANCES. TIMING OF THE RAIN'S ARRIVAL ASSUMES THE RAIN CONTINUES ITS 
CURRENT SPEED (WHICH IS A FAIRLY GOOD ASSUMPTION) AND INTENSITY 
(WHICH IS A SOMEWHAT LESS SOUND ASSUMPTION).

THIS RAIN EPISODE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK HITTER...HOWEVER. 
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF NOT LONG AFTER 
30/1800Z...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED (WITHIN A FEW HOURS) OF 
IMPROVEMENT (OR ELIMINATION) OF CEILINGS.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$