FXUS63 KICT 240554
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1154 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LATEST DATA IS SUGGESTING BRUNT OF WINTER STORM MAY BE TARGETING
FAR EASTERN KS AND POINTS EASTWARD INTO MISSOURI. LATEST MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO TRACK THE WINTER STORM FARTHER EAST FROM PREVIOUS
RUNS. CONSEQUENTLY...THINKING PRECIPITATION DURATION/INTENSITY
WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...STILL
ANTICIPATING A PERIOD OF LIGHT/MODERATE WINTERY PRECIPITATION FOR
MAINLY KICT-KCNU MID-MORNING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LINGERING INTO THE EVENING FOR KCNU. AM NOW
THINKING THE ONLY MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE AT KCNU THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...COMPRISED OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. KICT 1-3 INCHES...KCNU 3-6
INCHES. LIGHTER SNOW ANTICIPATED AT KHUT-KSLN-KRSL WITH
ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1 INCH. VERY STRONG WINDS MAY CREATE BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VSBYS FOR KICT-KCNU.
ADK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
UPDATE...
LATEST DATA COMING IN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF 4-7 INCHES WILL BE GENERALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON-THURSDAY
EVENING. AM BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
FLINT HILLS WILL SEE 1-4 INCHES...WITH LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY
14 MAYBE SEEING NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO...AND CENTRAL KANSAS
SEEING NO MORE THAN ONE INCH. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE MID/UPPER AND SURFACE FEATURES.
EXPECTING A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
THINKING THIS'LL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN DUE TO INITIAL
SHORTWAVE/LIFT SHIFTING NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA.
AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS TX/OK...ANTICIPATING
PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND TOWARD DAWN GENERALLY EAST OF I-135.
PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE PROFILES...WITH ALL RAIN OVER
SOUTHEAST KS. BY MID/LATE MORNING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL
SNOW FOR TURNPIKE CORRIDOR ON WEST...WITH THE MIX GRADUALLY
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST KS BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH CURRENT MSAS SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS WOULD SUGGEST THE MID/UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE RAPIDLY DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY PREVENT THIS SYSTEM FROM TAKING A
MORE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.(A MORE WEST/NORTHWEST TRACK WAS
ADVERTISED BY THIS MORNING'S GFS RUN).
HOWEVER...AM STILL CONCERNED THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY INSTANTLY
OCCLUDE ONCE IT REACHES THE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME OVER
EASTERN TX. PER LOW-LEVEL PROFILERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AM
NOT SEEING EVIDENCE OF THIS YET (PROFILERS ARE NOT BACKING)...BUT
IT BEARS WATCHING...AS INSTANT OCCLUSION WOULD FAVOR THE SYSTEM TO
SLOW DOWN AND TAKE A MORE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...WHICH WOULD
ALLOW THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND TO SET UP FARTHER WEST THAN WHAT'S
CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
WILL RUN WITH CURRENT WARNINGS AS IS. CONTEMPLATED DOWNGRADING
CENTRAL KS TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SINCE THEY WILL LIKELY NOT
BE SEEING MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ICE/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
HOWEVER...DECIDED TO JUST LET IT RIDE...AS VERY STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WITH EVEN LIGHT SNOW.
ADK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
EXPECTING A RELATIVE LULL IN THE ACTION TONIGHT...AS FIRST PIECE
OF ENERGY PROGRESSES NORTH OF THE AREA...AND THE 2ND LARGER PIECE
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DONE FOR KCNU WITH INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHIFTING EAST INTO MISSOURI. OTHERWISE...WITH LOW-LEVEL
LIFT...THINKING PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (MAINLY KRSL-KSLN) MAINLY THIS EVENING...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SLICK SPOTS. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
REALLY GET GOING LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. WITH THE WESTERN
KS MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING LATER TONIGHT...THINKING LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KRSL AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND STRENGTHENS
THINKING A WINTERY MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE-SLEET-SNOW WILL GET
GOING TOWARD DAYBREAK GENERALLY EAST OF I-135...WITH THE WINTERY
MIX CHANGING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS
BEFORE THE MIX CHANGES TO SNOW...WITH HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FROM
KICT ON EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VERY STRONG
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.
ADK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009/
UPDATE...
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL FOCUS ON THE POSSIBLE WINTER STORM
IMPACTING THE AREA FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
TONIGHT
MESSY AND TOUGH FORECAST. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY KEEPING THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST KS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NIGHT. SOME MAY GET
FRISKY...BUT SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THAN ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION ALREADY
BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE EVENING IN CENTRAL KS...WITH MIX OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION LIKELY. COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA WITH
FIRST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE STILL TO THE WEST. WITH WINTRY MIX EARLY
IN CENTRAL KS...THEN INCREASING WINDS LIKELY REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA TOWARD DAYBREAK BLOWING WHAT SNOW DOES OCCUR...WILL HOIST
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MAINLY WESTERN SECTIONS AND EXTEND INTO
LATER PERIODS. NOT OPTIMISTIC THAT ANY OF THE AREA WILL REACH
WARNING CRITERIA FOR ANY SINGLE WEATHER ELEMENT/CRITERIA.
MODEL-WISE...COMBO OF NORTH AMERICAN MODEL/LOCAL WRF USED FOR GRIDS.
-HOWERTON
THU-SAT
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SYSTEM OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO WITH A SECOND PV ANOMALY DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...AND A THIRD PIECE OF ENERGY RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THE SECOND PV ANOMALY WILL BE THE KEY FEATURE FOR
EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE THIRD PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
MERGE WITH THE FIRST WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN TEXAS TONIGHT AND
SHOULD CAUSE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE STRONG PV
ANOMALY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...WITH EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD
ACROSS MISSOURI. MODELS HAVE HAD A POOR OUTING WITH TRENDS...MOVING
IT NORTH THEN BACK SOUTH LATE IN THE GAME. A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
SEEMS LIKELY NOW WHICH WILL AFFECT SNOW AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS. SNOW
COULD AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION
LINE OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE
DAY. AS A RESULT...CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS COULD MISS OUT
ON THE GOOD ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. AFTER LOTS OF COORDINATION
EFFORTS WE WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL COME UP SHORT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...BUT ANY SNOW WITH THE WIND COULD STILL CREATE PROBLEMS.
THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR COLD WIND CHILL READINGS THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXTENDED: SUN-WED
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION FOR THE
THURSDAY-SATURDAY PERIOD WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE COLD AIRMASS ACROSS KANSAS SLOWLY MODIFYING FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE WEST COAST REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO KANSAS.
JAKUB
AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE VERY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VLIFR TO LIFR FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TOWARD 00Z AND INCREASE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...AND BE
SUSTAINED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
MIXING WITH THE SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO VLIFR. WIND SPEEDS
COULD APPROACH 25 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 35 TO 40 KTS.
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AT KRSL AND KSLN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW AFTER 06Z. AT KICT AND KHUT RA AND DZ WILL PLAGUE
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING TO
A WINTRY MIX AND FINALLY TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AROUND 11-12Z.
KCNU SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH RAIN THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 28 28 13 23 / 50 90 60 30
HUTCHINSON 26 26 12 21 / 40 70 50 30
NEWTON 27 27 13 22 / 50 90 60 30
ELDORADO 29 30 13 23 / 60 90 70 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 31 31 14 25 / 70 90 60 20
RUSSELL 22 22 9 19 / 50 60 40 40
GREAT BEND 23 23 10 20 / 50 50 40 30
SALINA 26 26 11 19 / 50 80 70 40
MCPHERSON 25 26 12 20 / 40 80 60 30
COFFEYVILLE 37 38 17 25 / 80 100 90 20
CHANUTE 35 35 17 24 / 80 100 90 30
IOLA 34 35 16 23 / 80 100 90 30
PARSONS-KPPF 36 37 17 24 / 80 100 90 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
KSZ071-072-095-096-099-100.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR KSZ033-048>053-
067>070-082-083-091>094-098.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR KSZ032-047.
&&
$$
