FXUS61 KILN 151810
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
110 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FA WILL REMAIN UNDER CAA NW FLOW TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY BUILDS E. ST WILL PERSIST THRU
MOST OF THE AFTN...BUT AS DRIER RH WORK IN LATER THIS AFTN...WRN
COUNTIES SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME BREAKS LATE THIS AFTN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE W AND SHOULD FALL IN
THE E UNDER THE CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND POPS ARE
VIRTUALLY ZERO. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S FAR NORTH TO
UPPER 30S SOUTH. A SLIGHT REBOUND WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ZONAL MID LVL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE 
DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES TO BE THE BIG QUESTION AS 
OPERATIONAL MODELS OSCILLATE ON STRENGTH AND POSITION OF COLD UPR 
LVL LOW OVER EITHER SE CANADA OR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A 
RESULT...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND GFS 
ENSEMBLE MEAN DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS. THIS 
SOLUTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS 
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING OF EMBEDDED 
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE UPR LVL FLOW WILL BE TOUGH TO PINPOINT AT 
THIS JUNCTURE. BEST CHC FOR PCPN SHOULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE 
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AND HAVE PLACED A 30 PERCENT CHANCE 
FOR SNOW SHOWERS THEN. THEREAFTER...HAVE KEPT SILENT 20 POPS IN THE 
ZONES DUE TO COLD NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NW CAA IS BRINGING MVFR/IFR CIGS TO THE TAFS. AS SFC HIGH OVER THE
PLAINS BUILDS E...DRIER LOW LEVELS WILL WORK E FROM IL. MOST OF
MODELS HAVE SKIES CLEARING OUT AROUND 00Z...BUT LOOKING AT CURRENT
TIMING AND MOVEMENT OFF OF SATELLITE...BACKED CLEARING OFF TO 01Z
IN DAY/CVG AND 04Z AT CMH/LUK. IN THIS CAA PATTERN CLEARING ALWAYS
SEEMS TO TAKE LONGER.

THERE IS AN AREA OF IFR CIGS IN E INDIANA/NW OH...SO NRN TAFS MAY
BE AFFECTED THIS AFTN.

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LATER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE E.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES