FXUS64 KOHX 142129
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
329 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL BE BASED ON A LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL 
SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

CURRENTLY...SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING INTO NW PORTIONS OF
THE MID STATE...OTHERWISE SCT/BKN SKIES. SFC FRONT APPROACHING THE
MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT. SHWRS/TSTMS CONFINED TO
MAINLY THE DEEP SOUTH. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 50S.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE E GREAT LAKES BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS 
WILL DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO THE VICINITY OF THE TN RIVER
VALLEY BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ALSO. THE POSSIBILITIES OF
RETURN MOISTURE FLOW REMAINS LIMITED WITH MOST MODEL RUNS KEEPING
THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE S AND E OF THE MID STATE. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT TO BE MINIMAL...WITH BEST CHANCE
TONIGHT E/S....MAINLY DURING THE MID EVENING HOURS TO EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS WEAK SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GULF
COAST...WITH THE FRONT POSITIONED GENERALLY ALONG AND E OF PLATEAU
BY MIDNIGHT. WILL GO WITH POST FRONTAL DRIZZLE TOWARD 12Z TUE
ACROSS AREAS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...INCLUDING MOST OF THE
NASHVILLE METRO AREA. WILL LEAN TOWARD NAM MOS VALUES ACROSS NW
ZONES WITH TEMP GRADIENT INCREASING ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE PLATEAU.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES WHILE SFC/LOW LEVEL CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN 
TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PUSH ALL THE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHWR 
ACTIVITY TO WELL TO OUR E/S OF THE MID STATE. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO
RISE MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES ON TUE AS NWLY TO N FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA.    

SFC HIGH WORKS SLOWLY ACROSS THE EN U.S. AND WEAK NW FLOW CONTINUES 
ALOFT THRU MID-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AND 
CONTINUE TO EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY REBOUND.

WILL GO CLOSE TO A NAM MOS/GFS MOS BLEND TUE THRU WED NIGHT FOR 
HIGHS/LOWS....WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO MEX MOS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MAIN FORECAST QUANDARY CENTERS AROUND LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD 
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED MOVE THRU SAT AFTERNOON BRINGING 
ANOTHER COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK MOISTURE SOURCES/IMPULSES 
COMING DOWN IN NW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
MOVING INTO THE REGION MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW 
TO MAINLY SUN THRU EARLY MON MORNING. THIS IS ABOUT A 24 HOUR SHIFT
FROM PREVIOUS MODEL FORECASTS...AND I AM A LEANING HERE TO THE
EURO SOLUTION WHICH DEPICTS THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
PRODUCTION. DGEX/GFS SOLUTIONS SHOWING LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
PCPN ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      40  45  26  44 /  20  10   0   0 
CLARKSVILLE    36  46  24  42 /  20  10   0   0 
CROSSVILLE     42  47  23  42 /  30  10   0   0 
COLUMBIA       42  47  28  46 /  20  10   0   0 
LAWRENCEBURG   43  49  28  48 /  30  10   0   0 
WAVERLY        35  46  25  44 /  20  10   0   0 
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31/JBW