FXUS62 KMLB 280145
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
840 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY-OVERNIGHT...IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CIRRUS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVING TOWARD THE PENINSULA. USING AWIPS
SPEED/DISTANCE TOOL CAME UP WITH AN ETA OF JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING WITH LOSS OF SUN AND CLEAR SKIES
THE TREND SHOULD SLOW DOWN ONCE THE CIRRUS SHIELD GETS OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...WITH THE COOLER LAND TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTING A
NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW TO SET UP LAST FEW HOURS OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. MAY SEE ANOTHER QUICK 2 TO 3 DEGREES DROP ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WHEN THE LAND BREEZE SETS UP AND PULLS COOLER AIR
TOWARD THE COAST BUT OVERALL RAISED OVERNIGHT MINS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. ON THAT NOTE HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF FROST FOR THE AREAS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 4.
SAT...WILL EXPERIENCE A LITTLE MODERATING OF TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COAST AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST BUT STILL WELL BELOW THE
NORMAL MID-UPPER 50S LOW AND MID 70S HIGH.
PREVIOUS MID/LONG TERM DISCUSSIONS...
SUN THRU MON NGT...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTH
FL THROUGH SUN NGT...THEN THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST AS A
NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE ERN CONUS...WITH ITS
BASE REACHING THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH
FL BY 12Z TUE...WHERE IT WILL SLOW AS A SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
REACHES OLD MEX AND APPROACHES THE WRN GOMEX. FAIR WX WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE PD WITH TEMPS MODIFYING TO CLIMO BY
SUN AND SLGTLY ABOVE MON/MON NGT. RETAINED SLGT CHC FOR POPS MON
NIGHT AS PREFRONTAL MOISTURE/CONVG COULD KICK OFF A FEW
-SHRA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH.
TUE-FRI...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) COOL FRONT LOOKS TO BECM QSTNRY
OVER CNTRL FL TUE AS A H50 SHORT WAVE TROUGH REACHES THE WRN GOMEX
AND SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WRN-CTRL GOMEX. BDRY WILL LIFT
NWD TUE NGT/EARLY WED AS THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY NE ACROSS THE NERN
GULF COAST ...RETURNING SEWD AS A COLD FRONT WED NGT/THU MORNING.
PATTERN FAVORS GOMEX SQLN FORMATION WITH STRONG 120KT+ JET OVER
NERN GOMEX AND DECENT AMPLITUDE TROUGH AT H50 LEADING TO STRONG
MID/UPR FORCING. 50-60KT H85 JET ALSO CROSSES THE NRN HALF OF FL
WED MORNING/EARLY AFTN. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SVR STORMS OVER ECFL GIVEN THE FARTHER EWD TREND THIS
RUN...ALTHOUGH THE SFC LOW LOOKS A BIT STRUNG OUT NE-SW (WHICH
TENDS TO DAMPEN OUT LOW LVL HELICITY SOMEWHAT) AND THE H50 TROUGH
TENDS TO BE LIFTING OUT MORE THAN MOVG ZONALLY/W-E AS YOU OFTEN
SEE IN MORE CLASSIC WARM SEASON ENSO EVENTS. NEVERTHELESS GIVEN
THE TREND IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE FUTURE MODEL RUNS CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING. FROPA WILL BRING COOLER/DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU AFTN THRU
FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...CURRENTLY-OVERNIGHT...LATEST ROUND OF BUOY REPORTS SHOWING
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND SEAS RANGED
FROM 2 TO 4 FEET JUST OFF THE BEACHES TO AROUND 4 FEET AT BUOY 009
AND 7 FEET AT BUOY 010. NEARSHORE SEAS TRENDING DOWN AS ANTICIPATED
IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW WHILE SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE GULF STREAM AREAS THEN CANCEL THE ADVISORY WITH THE EARLY
MORNING MARINE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSIONS...
SAT...NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS MAY START OFF 10-15 KNOTS OFFSHORE
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THEREFORE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF STREAM
MIGHT BE ROUGH EARLY. BY AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP TO 10
KNOTS OR LESS.
SUN-WED...PROXIMITY OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR IMPROVING CONDS
WITH LIGHT GRADIENT WIND AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. APPROACHING FRONT
TUE WILL INCREASE WINDS/SEAS TUE...WITH FURTHER INCREASE LIKELY WED
AS SRN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY
GOOD THAT SCEC TO SCA THRESHOLD WILL BE MET BY TUE OR WED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING VERIFIED QUITE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LEAST 4
HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
HAVE KEPT THE SATURDAY FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE INTERIOR AS
MOISTURE RECOVERY FROM WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST DURING
DAY WILL BE SLOWER THAN IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-
OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
