FXUS65 KFGZ 250929
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE 
WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF 
PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

&&
DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS REMAINED 
ALONG THE WEST COAST WHILE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO 
SPIN OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES. AS A 
RESULT...A DEEP LAYER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WAS POSITIONED ACROSS 
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE EAST AND 
NORTHERLY FLOW A DEEP, COLD AIR MASS HAS PLUNGED SOUTHWARD FROM OVER 
THE POLAR REGIONS. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE 
TO SPILL OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND INTO ARIZONA INTO NEXT WEEK. 
AS A RESULT...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE. BY EARLY 
NEXT WEEK...SEVERAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST. A 
VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS ON SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN IMPACT 
BEING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A STRONGER 
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE MONDAY/TUESDAY 
SYSTEM HEADING WELL SOUTH OF ARIZONA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR 
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER 
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 
WEDNESDAY. NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AT 
THIS TIME HOWEVER, QUTIE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTLY REMAINS AND WILL NEED 
TO MONITOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD CLOSELY . 

TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE INDICATING 
THAT A SERIES OF WEAK AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH 
NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS A RESULT...THE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY 
DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL 
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES FOR THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. AVIATION 
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......TC

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.