FXUS62 KMHX 061001
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
455 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EXTEND OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS BY EARLY
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY. A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
DRAG A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. STRONG COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM W WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS
TODAY. ONLY FLY IN OINTMENT WILL BE SCU DECK THAT WILL HUG OUTER
BANKS UNTIL DRIER AIR FILTERS IN DURING AFTN. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR 50 MOST AREAS...WITH MID TO UPR 40S OUTER BANKS DUE TO
CLOUDINESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY STRONG SFC
HIGH OVER AREA. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VEERING LOW LVL
FLOW ACROSS GULF STREAM PRODUCING INVERTED COASTAL TROF THAT WILL
AFFECT ERN NC MON AND MON NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS PCPN OFF COAST BUT HARD
TO GO AGAINST ANY THREAT OF PCPN GIVEN WET PATTERN OF PAST FEW
WEEKS. SPREAD 20/30 POPS OVER SRN SECTIONS FOR MON MORNING...AND
KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF 20-40 POPS MON AFTN/EVE. HIGHEST POPS ALONG
AND E OF HWY 17. PCPN THREAT WILL DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD
FRONT LATE MON NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TUE MORNING BUT MSTR WILL
SPREAD IN QUICKLY TUE AFTN IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM...AND ADDED 20
POP FOR WRN AND SRN SECTIONS TUE AFTN. MODELS SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH WDSPRD PCPN DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS TO 70.
WENT WITH COLDER MOS GDNCE FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...MOS BLEND REST OF
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAIN DYNAMICS AND SFC LOW WILL BE WELL N OF AREA WED BUT ENOUGH
FORCING WITH FRONT FOR 60 POPS DURING AFTN WITH MENTION OF CHC
TSTMS. HIGH AND DRY THU-FRI...THEN ANOTHER CHC RAIN DEVELOPING SAT
WITH LATEST GFS/ECMWF INDICATING ANOTHER PSBL COASTAL LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS
AROUND 2.5-3K FT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AS
INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TODAY AS A DRY AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE
REGION. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 15 KT THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRES MOVES INTO CENTRAL NC AND
VA.
GENERALLY VFR SUNDAY EVENING BUT LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE
AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS A POWERFUL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. VFR RETURNS AGAIN THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
TODAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NE WELL AWAY FROM THE REGION AND HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. WINDS AROUND 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS ALL
WATERS AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT AT 41036 BUOY SO HAVE
CANCELLED THE SCA FOR THE SOUNDS AND WATERS S OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND
WILL LET THE SCA EXPIRE FROM LOOKOUT TO OCRACOKE AT 12Z. DIAMOND
BUOY CONTINUES TO HAVE SEAS AROUND 7 FT AND HAS BEEN 1-2 FT HIGHER
THAN WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE WATERS N OF OCRACOKE INLET. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING OF SUB SCA SEAS BETWEEN SWAN AND WAVEWATCH AND DECIDED
TO USE A COMPROMISE AND ENDING BY THIS EVENING.
N/NELY WINDS MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT THEN A
COASTAL TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION MON AS HIGH PRES SLIDES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SHIFTING WINDS TO SELY ACROSS MOST OF
THE WATERS HOWEVER MODELS INDICATING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES BACK OFFSHORE MON
NIGHT AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND A NRLY
SURGE UP TO 20 KT IS EXPECTED TUE.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE WATERS WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FROM WILL LIFT THROUGH FROM THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG SMALL CRAFT WINDS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY OF 25-30 KNOTS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH HAVEN'T RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE...A HIGHER TIDE
CYCLE WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY TODAY AND COMBINED WITH ABOVE
NORMAL WATER LEVELS AND NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH MAY
PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE SOUND SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THROUGH THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150-
152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ156.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...SK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SK
