FXUS64 KSHV 252143
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
343 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM WEST
AS INTENSE STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED NORTHWARD TO NEAR IOWA. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS...GOOD RADIATION COOLING...AND NW FLOW ACROSS
SNOWPACK OF NEAR ONE HALF FOOT ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...LOWERED
OVERNIGHT LOWS...TO LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF CWA.
LIKEWISE...LOWERED MOS SLIGHTLY NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE
UPSTREAM SNOWPACK...WHICH HAS LITTLE MELTING POTENTIAL THRU THE
WEEKEND. A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE MID AND
UPPER LVL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN TX EARLY TUESDAY. A TRICKY PCPN
TYPE FORECAST AS DRIER AIR IN LOWER LVLS LIKELY INDUCE EVAPORATIVE
COOLING WITH ONSET OF PCPN. LOOKING FOR A LIGHT SLEET AND RAIN MIX
OVER SE OK...AND EXTREME NE TX. FOR NOW...KEEP LIQUID RAIN DURING DAY...
WITH MOST OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AS SFC LOW LIKELY TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHERN GULF. MAY SEE A TRANSITION TO RAIN AND SNOW MIX AS
PCPN MOVES EAST WED MORNING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30. A LONGWAVE TROF TO DEEPEN OVER AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE...BUT LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF FCST. AS
HIGH PRESSURE...SIMILAR IN STREGTH TO CURRENT RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREA...
CREATES COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT A RAIN
TO SNOW TRANSITION MAY OCCUR AT BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. SINCE
NEAR END OF EXTENDED...WILL ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY OF
FROZEN PCPN THUR NIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 30./VII/
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION TERMINAL FORECAST
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OR
POSSIBLE 7 KFT MIDDLE CLOUDS EARLY EVENING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING FROM SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 22 KNOTS TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY 26/00Z. OTHER TERMINAL
SITES ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA WILL BE DROPPING TO LESS THAN 7 KNOTS INTO THE EVENING
AFTER 26/00Z. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS GTE/GREATER THAN OR
EQUAL 25 KFT/ WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR NEAR 26/12Z TO 26/18Z. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST WILL MOVE EAST
ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN AROUND ITS BACK SIDE AFTER
26/20Z SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 5 KFT AFFECTING PARTS
OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 25 KFT WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
SATURDAY BETWEEN 26/09Z TO 26/12Z. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 26 50 30 51 27 / 0 10 10 10 10
MLU 25 49 29 51 28 / 0 10 10 10 10
DEQ 20 45 23 45 23 / 0 10 0 10 10
TXK 23 45 30 47 28 / 0 10 10 10 10
ELD 23 47 28 49 25 / 0 10 10 10 10
TYR 25 47 29 50 29 / 0 10 10 10 10
GGG 25 48 28 50 27 / 0 10 10 10 10
LFK 24 48 31 54 28 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
