FXUS63 KIND 261748
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1248 PM EST THU NOV 26 2009

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
DEEP MOISTURE HAS FILTERED INTO FORECAST AREA OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SNOW SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH ILLINOIS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S BY THE
TIME THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MOVES INTO FORECAST AREA. SO...THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR MOST OF
TAF PERIOD WITH KLAF AND KHUF DIPPING INTO IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES.
DECENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER LEVELS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WESTERLY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...POTENT UPPER AIR SYSTEM CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST 
ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA 
LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE 
TROUGH...HOWEVER THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH UPPER 
RIDGING RETURNING TO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURES. FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON POPS AND 
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THE UPPER AIR SYSTEM TODAY.

FOR TODAY...MODEL DATA SUGGEST MAIN FORCING WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM 
WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH 
HIGH POPS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR 
MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FARTHER SOUTH 
WHERE FORCING WILL BE WEAKER. THICKNESSES STILL SUGGEST MIXED 
PRECIPITATION AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO NOT 
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

IN THE LATER PERIODS...MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE MAIN FORCING/DEEP 
MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO BY 27/00Z...SO THERE MAY 
BE SOME LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR 
EASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING BUT THAT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT IT AS DRIER 
AIR MOVES IN PRETTY FAST TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME CLEARING IN THE PRE 
DAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY. 

REST OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH MILD TEMPERATURES 
RETURNING AS SURFACE/UPPER RIDGING BUILD INTO THE AREA. NEXT CHANCE 
FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE AT THE TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND AND 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS TODAY MAY BE A 
COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO WARM. WILL NUDGE THEM DOWN A BIT. GUIDANCE IN 
THE REST OF THE PERIODS LOOK OK.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAS
AVIATION...TDUD