FXUS61 KCLE 070902
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
402 AM EST MON DEC 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A SECOND
MUCH STRONGER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY
DRAGGING AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW NOW INTO WESTERN INDIANA SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. SNOW SUPPORTED BY A WEAK 500 MB VORT MAX PLUS
SOME LIFT FROM NOSE OF UPPER JET. JET MAX WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. USED THE COOLER MET MOS TEMPS TODAY SINCE
THEY HAVE BEEN MUCH BETTER THAN THE GFS MOS THE LAST 2 DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL ROCK THE AREA MID WEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH
IS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS. PRECIP SHOULD START MAINLY
AS SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...SOME ICE PELLETS OR EVEN A
LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY ACROSS NW
PA. JUDGING FROM THE THICKNESSES PRECIP SHOULD TURN TO ALL RAIN
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL. LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY DRAGGING ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT FALLING TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO -8 C BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. 

WIND ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE
TO 55 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

COLDER AIR QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 850
TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -15 BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S AREA WIDE...BUT WITH THE STRONG
WINDS THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE MUCH COLDER.  LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT LUCKILY WINDS ON LAKE ERIE STAY
PREDOMINATELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IF THIS IS THE CASE WE WILL BE
SPARED THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE SNOW
BELT. THE MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING. THE MODELS TRY TO DECREASE
THE MOISTURE STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT. SOMETIMES THE MODEL DO THIS
TO0 QUICKLY. NONE THE LESS WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING FOR THE SNOW BELT INTO FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE IT WILL BE DRY WITH
JUST SOME CLOUDS.

SATURDAY THE ECMWF AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS HAS A WARM FRONT 
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS QPF WITH THIS WHILE THE GFS 
DOESN'T. THE GFS DOESN'T SEEM RIGHT...SO TO GET THINGS STARTED WENT 
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND CAN MONITOR THE SITUATION. SUNDAY IS 
TOUGH...THE GFS REALLY HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WHILE THE 
ECMWF HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUT IS TRYING TO HINT AT A WEAK TROF 
CROSSING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS THINKING OF 
AREAS OF 20% POPS.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT MORE WITH THE GRIDDED MOS WHICH WAS GENERALLY 
COOLER WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES.
&&

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONTINUED WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. THE NEW NAM SUGGESTS
THAT THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE MUCH QUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS
AND WILL BE ADDING THE MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TAFS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO BRING IN THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR LATER
IN THE PERIOD.   

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY AND THE WINDS MAY PICK 
UP ENOUGH ON THE EAST END FOR A WAVES NEAR 3 TO 5 FEET FOR A SHORT 
TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME WILL 
JUST KEEP THE WAVES 2 TO 4 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN 
FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST TUESDAY...TO GIVE WAY TO A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

THIS MAY BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT ON THE LAKE FROM WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE. AT 
THIS TIME WILL BE FORECASTING JUST A HIGH END GALE. A GALE WATCH OR 
STORM WATCH WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. WITH THE WIND DIRECTION LOW 
WATER ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ERIE WILL OCCUR. IT WILL STAY WINDY ON 
THE LAKE FOR A BIT...IT MAY TAKE TO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY 
MORNING FOR THE WIND SPEEDS TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...KIELTYKA