FXUS64 KMEG 242103
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
303 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S. RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE INTENSITY HAS
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS TRYING THE MAKE ITS WAY
INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND SHOULD REACH EASTERN ARKANSAS LATER
TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD MEAN MUCH LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED IN AREAS
WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT 00Z TONIGHT AND NOT EXTEND IT.
WINDS HAVE REMAINED AT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF CHRISTMAS DAY. HAVE EXTENDED
THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL CANCEL THE HIGH
WIND WATCH. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS
COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE
RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. WITH THE GROUND REMAINING
QUITE WARM AND WET DO NO EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 2000
FEET CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE ABOVE THIS
LAYER. SNOW MAY TRY TO FALL DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT MAY HAVE
A HARD TIME REACHING THE GROUND SO AGAIN LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SO DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN. CAN'T RULE SOME FLURRIES
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT CHANCE
IS VERY SMALL SO WILL NOT MENTION FOR NOW.
DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
OR SNOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST AND MOVE EAST. THIS SYSTEM MAY SPREAD
SOME RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM THERE COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER.
ARS
&&
AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE.
SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. PLACED TEMPOS AT ALL SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR +RA.
REMOVED THUNDER MENTION AT ALL SITES FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE
BETTER CONVECTION SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. ISOLATED
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. BELIEVE CIGS WILL
NOT GO BELOW LIFR EVEN WITH +RA. KEPT VSBYS NO WORSE THAN IFR
ATTM.
WIND SHEAR WILL STILL BE A FACTOR AT ALL SITES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT 925 MB WINDS AROUND THE 50-60KT RANGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SURFACE WINDS...AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM.
MENTIONED -SN AFTER 12Z AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KTUP. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LINGERING PRECIPITATION AS COLD AIR ALOFT
PUSHES IN WITH ENHANCED H5 HEIGHT FALLS. ANY SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AS
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
CCD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 33 38 30 45 / 80 20 10 10
MKL 34 37 27 43 / 90 20 10 10
JBR 32 36 26 40 / 90 20 10 10
TUP 35 41 28 46 / 90 20 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-
DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-
SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
