FXUS63 KMPX 292316 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
520 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 243 PM CST

COOL AFTERNOON TODAY THANKS TO PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH THIS MORNING 
AND BRIEF BOUT OF CAA. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE 
NRN ROCKIES AND CRESTING OVER AZ/CA/NRN MEXICO CUT OFF LOW WILL 
QUICKLY RETURN REGION TO WAA TONIGHT. STRATUS OVER AREA NOW WILL 
LIKELY LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO...WHEN WAA WILL INCREASE TEMPS 
ALOFT AND HELP CLEAN THINGS OUT. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY 
MORNING...BUT TEMPS WILL NOT FALL OFF TOO MUCH TONIGHT...THANKS TO 
THE WAA AND WEST WINDS STAYING UP. THOUGH DECENT WAA WILL BE MOVING 
IN TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC SFCS PROGGED TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...SO NOT 
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OR PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL 
LATE IN THE MORNING MONDAY...WHEN THE WAA MEETS UP WITH THE EXIT 
REGION OF WEAK UPPER JET AND A SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE OVER NRN MN. 
LOOKING AT GFS X-SECTIONS...SEEING BRIEF WINDOW WHERE FGEN AND 
MOISTURE LINE UP FROM ABOUT H85 TO H5 NEAR NE BORDER OF CWA DURING 
THE AFTERNOON...BASICALLY EXPECT SIMILAR SITUATION TO LAST NIGHT ON 
SNOWFALL...WITH QUICK BURST OF SNOW MOVING ACROSS AREA NORTH OF 
I94...WITH ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY CONFINED TO WEST CENTRAL 
WIS. WHAT WILL BE NOTICEABLE WITH THIS WAA HOWEVER IS CONSIDERABLY 
WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR HIGHS MONDAY...USED MIX 
DOWN TOOL ON GFS TO H9...WHICH YIELDED ABOUT A 10 DEGREE SPREAD 
ACROSS CWA...WITH UPPER 40S OUT IN THE UPPER MN VALLEY AND UPPER 30S 
OUT TOWARD LADYSMITH. TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY... 
AND IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT CWA WILL SPEND BETTER PART OF THE 
DAY TUESDAY IN WARM SECTOR...SO WARMED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FOR 
THEN...WITH SOME 50S SNEAKING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH.

UNFORTUNATELY...ALL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH TUESDAY BEING THE 
LAST VESTIGE OF OUR MILD LATE FALL WEATHER AS COLD FRONT MOVING 
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING IN FIRST ROUND OF CAA. BEST 
MOISTURE/LIFT WITH THIS FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE INTL BORDER...SO 
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING ELSE TO COME IN WITH THE COLD AIR. H85 TEMPS 
ARE PROGGED BY GFS/GEM/ECMWF TO BE AROUND -8C TO -10C WEDNESDAY... 
AND MIXING TO H9 ON THE GFS ONLY YIELDS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 
30S. SECOND...STRONGER BLAST OF CAA WILL COME THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT...SENDING H85 TEMPS TUMBLING DOWN TO AROUND -15C BY THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...AND 
MIXING TO H9 ON THE GFS ONLY YIELDED HIGHS AROUND 20 NORTH WITH MID 
20S SOUTH...WHICH WAS PRETTY CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE. WILL ALSO BE IN 
CLASSIC STRATOCU/FLURRIES PATTERN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH STEEP 
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF DEEP UPPER 
LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THOUGH IT WILL 
BE COLDER...LACK OF ANY DISCERNIBLE SNOW COVER UNTIL YOU GET INTO 
THE NRN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES SHOULD HELP SOFTEN THE BLOW SOME. 
THE COLD WEATHER...WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOOKS TO 
HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. BY NEXT WEEKEND...ECMWF AND 
GFS WANTING TO BRING SOME TYPE OF SYSTEM UP THIS DIRECTION AS WHOLE 
OF NOAM GETS UNDER BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF H5 
HEIGHT BLENDS BY THE WEEKEND SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ACROSS THE 
US...SO HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE 
REACHED IN THIS TIME FRAME.

LOOKING OUT INTO THE NEAR FUTURE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGINNING TO 
SHOW SIGNS OF A PATTERN SHIFT AS STRONG/BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE FORMS 
OVER THE NE PAC WITH ARCTIC AIR MEANDERING FROM SIBERIA OVER TO NRN 
NOAM...LOOKING LIKE SECOND WEEK OF DECEMBER MAY START SEEING ARCTIC 
AIR SEEP INTO THE CONUS...PER 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

BACK EDGE OF SC ERODING AND TRANSLATING EWRD ACRS W MN AS WNDS BCM 
MORE WSW. CLRG SHUD ADVANCE TO MSP BY 06Z AND ACRS EAU ARND 09Z. WK 
FAST MVG SHRTWV MVG INTO NW MB WL DIVE ACRS NE MN MON MRNG/ERLY 
AFTN. THIS WL BRNG SM THICKENING CLDS MAINLY FM AXN/STC INTO EAU 
DRNG MRNG...BUT WITH BASES GNRLY AOA 4K.  WK SFC TROF MVS ACRS AREA 
WITH THIS FEATURE WITH WNW WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 20 KTS BHD SFC TROF.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

MPG/BAP