FXUS61 KILN 090154
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
854 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AND LIFT
NE INTO THE UPPER MS VLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER
MO TO EJECT NE TO A POSITION NR SRN LAKE MI BY 12Z WED. DEEP ISENTROPIC
LIFT HAS OVERSPREAD ILN/S ENTIRE FA THRU THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING.
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVEL WITH LOW LEVEL WET BULB VALUES BELOW FREEZING
ALLOWING THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF ILN/S
FA TO FALL AS SLEET. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA THIS MIX HAS SHIFTED
NORTH TO THE FAR NRN TIER OF ILN/S FA. ALL PRECIP WL CHANGE TO
RAIN THRU THE EVENING WITH CONTD WAA. HAVE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST TRENDS AND UPDATED TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. WENT WITH A BLEND WITH A SLIGHT
GFS BIAS. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER ILLINOIS AND INTO MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY. AS IT DOES THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR AND THE
TEMPERATURE WILL DROP DURING THE DAY. AS THE TEMPERATURE DROPS
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SNOW. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS. WENT WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING OVER A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA DUE TO GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WHICH WILL
BRING STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BUFKIT WAS GIVING
SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FA AND THEREFORE
WENT WITH A WIND ADVISORY OVER THAT LOCATION. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
SLIGHTLY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BY THURSDAY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TEENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...
PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. WE MAY SEE SNOW SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY RESULTING FROM A STORM SYSTEM TRAVELING NEAR THE GULF
COAST. MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW TRAVELING ALONG THE GULF COAST BRINGS A
CHANCE OF SNOW NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 30...OVER 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
READINGS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN
THE MID 30S SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEPENING SFC LOW TO EJECT NE TO A POSITION NR SRN LM BY 12Z WED.
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP EAST THRU ILNS AREA WED MORNING.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OVERSPREADING ILN/S
TAF SITES. INITIALLY LOW LEVELS ARE DRY WITH LOW LEVEL WET BULB
VALUES BELOW FREEZING. THIS IS ALLOWING THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70)
TO FALL AS SLEET. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WAA ALL PRECIP WL CHANGE
TO ALL RAIN. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO DROP WITH MANY LOCATIONS
GOING BLO 1000 FEET WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 2SM IN RAIN TONIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW EAST TO SE WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30KTS
OVERNIGHT. HAVE A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SWRLY LOW
LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE OHIO VALLEY. CIGS MAY IMPROVE A LTL
LATE TNGT EARLY ON WED...GENERALLY INTO THE MVFR CAT. IN STRONG
CAA PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GOOD MIXING WILL SEE VERY STRONG
SWRLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 TO 50KTS POSSIBLE. IN THE STG
CAA SCTD SNOW SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE AFTN INTO
THE EARLY EVE HOURS. WINDS WL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOME LATE IN THE
AFTN INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>063-070>072-077>079.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
OHZ064-065-073-074-080>082-088.
KY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
KYZ089>099.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
KYZ100.
IN...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK/AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR
