FXUS62 KMHX 232039
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
339 PM EST WED DEC 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO
FLORIDA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA AND OFFSHORE BY EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFFSHORE BY LATE THURSDAY. MOISTURE
INCREASES TOMORROW FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD OF NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY THURSDAY
NIGHT AS MOISTURE/ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES...WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS
INCREASE WHICH WILL HOLD MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUES WHILE THE NAM12
IS SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP ON FRIDAY. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS/ECMWF AND WILL START TO BRING IN SMALLISH POPS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PER THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
OFFSHORE BY 12Z ON SATURDAY. QPF TOTALS NOW LOOK A BIT
HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE INCH TO INCH AND A HALF RANGE FOR THIS
SYSTEM. WITH LEADING WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...WILL SEE MAX TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOWER AND POSSIBLY
MIDDLE 60S FRIDAY. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER
GFS GUIDANCE. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS MILD AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD
FRONT WITH MAXES APPROACHING 60 OVER MANY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDS...STRONG COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AND MINS MAINLY IN THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT WEAK
LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY PRODUCING PRECIP ON WEDS BUT WITH LITTLE
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
WITH THE CONTINUED NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) AND STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...SUPPORTED BY THE MJO
PULSE IN PHASES 8, 1 AND 2 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS...ANTICIPATE
A COLD AND SOMEWHAT STORMY PATTERN CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES IN MID JANUARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDS...STRONG COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY PERIOD. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN BLO NORMAL WITH MAXES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AND MINS MAINLY IN THE 30S. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HINTING AT WEAK
LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY PRODUCING PRECIP ON WEDS BUT WITH LITTLE
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
WITH THE CONTINUED NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) AND STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...SUPPORTED BY THE MJO
PULSE IN PHASES 8, 1 AND 2 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS...ANTICIPATE
A COLD AND SOMEWHAT STORMY PATTERN CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES IN MID JANUARY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330PM WEDNESDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR ASIDE FROM SOME VERY THIN
CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AROUND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...AND SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT N/NE AROUND A 1026MB HIGH PRES
NEAR WAKEFIELD VA. UPSTREAM SAT PICS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THIS MAY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL BUT THINK TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO
DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MINIMAL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND SOME
PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR EWN/PGV PER PERSISTENCE
AND NEARBY WATER INFLUENCES. HOWEVER THINK THERE WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...SO NOT GOING QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC
AS PERSISTENCE WOULD SUGGEST. THIS THREAT ENDS QUICKLY AFTER
12/13Z THU MORNING.
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU EVENING. HOWEVER...AS LOW
LEVELS CONTINUE TO SATURATE WITH ONSHORE FLOW COULD SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS BY LATE THU NIGHT. FURTHER DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W.
PREDOMINANT MVFR APPEARS LIKELY WITH OCCN IFR AS PRECIP MOVES IN BY
FRI AFTN AND CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG AND GUSTY SE
WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE ON FRI. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
BY SAT MORNING AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. MAINLY VFR TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING HIGH PRES AND PERSISTENT WLY WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 330PM WEDNESDAY...N/NE WINDS 5-15KT AND SEAS MAINLY 3FT OR LESS
ARE RULING THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVER SE VIRGINIA.
STILL LOOKS LIKE NE WINDS WILL PICK UP A NOTCH LATER TONIGHT INTO
THU AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH...AND
INTERACTS WITH WEAK COASTAL TROUGHING OFF THE SE COAST. SWAN STILL
SUGGESTS THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO SCA LEVELS TOMORROW MAINLY
BEYOND 10NM. WHILE IT LOOKS MARGINAL HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND ISSUED THE ADVISORY AS WAVE PERIODS WILL BE VERY SHORT
WITH ASSOCIATED HIGH STEEPNESS. CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FURTHER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THU NIGHT AND ESP CHRISTMAS
DAY AS FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE W/SW. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS AS NAM SEEMED TO BE A MUCH SLOWER OUTLIER WITH
MOVING THE FRONT OFFSHORE SAT EVENING. BLENDING THESE SOLUTIONS WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST GAVE STRONG SMALL CRAFT TO NEAR GALE RANGE SE
BECOMING S WINDS LATE FRI AFTN THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ALSO ADVERTISING
SCA WINDS FOR THE SOUNDS BUT HAVE NOT ISSUED THE ADVISORY THERE YET
SINCE ITS 4TH PERIOD. SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 10-13FT RANGE FRI
NIGHT.
IT THEN LOOKS LIKE 10-20 KT WLY WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE GULF COAST STATES. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ARE SHOWING SMALL CRAFT W/NW WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH AS
THE HIGH GETS REINFORCED FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND LOW PRES
DEEPENS NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE. HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW A MODEST
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AT THIS JUNCTURE THOUGH. SE BECOMING S WIND
WAVES COME DOWN STEADILY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT GET REPLACED BY A
MIX OF SHORT PERIOD W WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD E/NE SWELL FROM LOW
PRES EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SMALL
CRAFT RANGE SEAS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...ESP WATERS
NORTH OF OCRACOKE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MW
