FXUS63 KFSD 270933
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
333 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER NICE DAY TODAY AND LIKELY THE WARMEST FOR QUITE SOME TIME. 
WINDS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER THE 
PLAINS. LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING THE 50S OVER MOST THE AREA...AND 
EVEN SOME LOWER 60S IN S CNTRL SD. NOTHING CLOSE TO BREAKING ANY 
RECORDS...BUT HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ONLY THING 
THAT COULD DAMPER TEMPERATURES A BIT TODAY IS CIRRUS SPILLING 
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE. TOUGH TO TELL HOW THICK THE CIRRUS IS OR IS 
NOT AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT...WITH ONLY IR SATELLITE TO LOOK AT. SO 
MAY NOT BE MUCH OF ANYTHING...BUT GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SKIES COULD BE 
MORE ON THE PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SIDE IN THE NRN CWA...WITH 
LESS CIRRUS S. 

SFC TROUGH SLIDES E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOME COOLER AIR 
TO FILTER S LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10 
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 20S. FOR TOMORROW...COOLER AIR 
WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE 40S N TO LOWER 50S S...STILL A GOOD DEAL 
ABOVE NORMAL. 

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL SWRD SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS AN UPPER 
LEVEL WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT DROP ACROSS THE PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME 
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE...BUT REALLY 
DEPENDS ON IF IT GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER TO A GREATER EXTENT THAN THE 
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN 
SOME FLURRIES SAT NIGHT...MAYBE A DUSTING OF SNOW.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT 
TO KEEP THE THEME GOING...IT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END 
OF NOV. MODELS STILL NOT SURE HOW TO HANDLE THE UPPER TROUGH FOR MID 
TO LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME CONSENSUS ON 
PHASING THE NRN AND SRN STREAM...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH S 
AND E OF THE AREA THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON 
THE LOW SIDE. COULD SQUEEZE OUT SOME OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OR 
FLURRIES THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AS COLDER NW FLOW REPLACES THE 
MILD WRLY FLOW. THE BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THE AREA WILL BE THE COLDER 
AIR...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.             

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

$$