FXUS62 KFFC 251422 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
922 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009
.UPDATE...
AREA OF RAIN STEADILY PUSHING EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS EAST AND
DROP POPS IN THE WEST. COULD STILL SEE A FEW SPRINKLES WEST
SECTIONS WITH COLD FRONT STILL OVER ALABAMA...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE. REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOK IN LINE.
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&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH MO AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN AL. THE ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT IS NOSING UP NEAR A LGC TO MCN TO DBN LINE...WITH UPPER 50 TO
LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD.
LOOKS LIKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY...OR WILL OCCUR THIS
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO GO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE HIGHS ARE OCCURRING NOW. MAIN
CONCERN IS THE GRADIENT WIND...THAT HAS BEEN KNOCKING NUMEROUS TREES
DOWN ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE GRADIENT TO
BEGIN RELAXING A BIT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO GA.
HOWEVER...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN AS A
COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME...
PLAN TO LET THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA RESPECTIVELY RIDE THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING...THEN
REISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO STAY OUT OF THE LATER ADVISORY...BUT
WILL FINE TUNE THIS JUST BEFORE 7 AM. HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH LIGHTNING
MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL GA SO FAR THIS MORNING...AND SUSPECT THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER SUPPORT LIFT FURTHER
NORTH. HOWEVER... AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THIS MORNING...THE
WARM...INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NOSING IN OVER THE SE ZONES
WILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH THE MORNING. A
DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD IN OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY WINDS MAKING THINGS FEEL MUCH
COLDER. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE WERE CLOSE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...SO WILL
NOT STRAY FAR. TOOK A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TRYING TO
DEVELOP COURTESY OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE
SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER GULF LOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN TRACKING ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL FL ON THURSDAY. THIS
WOULD BE SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE AN OVERRUNNING EVENT WITH A COLD
STABLE RAIN ON TAP. THEREFORE...WILL SHOW NO MENTION OF THUNDER
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...
A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 16Z WITH MOST AREAS MVFR OR BETTER BY 18Z. MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD LAST THROUGH 00Z WITH CLOUDS BECOMING SCATTERED
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA BY 06Z. STRONG...GUSTY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY AND THEN WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY...AND WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS BY 18Z...THEN FALL BELOW 10
KTS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 53 29 54 32 50 / 20 0 5 5 10
ATLANTA 50 30 52 34 49 / 10 0 5 10 10
BLAIRSVILLE 48 26 48 25 44 / 10 0 10 10 10
CARTERSVILLE 50 26 50 27 49 / 10 0 5 10 10
COLUMBUS 60 31 55 34 52 / 5 0 5 10 10
GAINESVILLE 46 30 52 33 49 / 10 0 5 5 10
MACON 62 29 56 32 53 / 10 0 5 10 10
ROME 48 29 52 27 49 / 5 0 10 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 55 27 52 27 49 / 10 0 5 10 10
VIDALIA 66 35 57 33 55 / 30 0 5 10 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...DADE...DAWSON...
FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...
POLK...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
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