FXUS62 KCAE 280803
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
303 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WITH LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR...AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK THIS MORNING IN
MANY LOCATIONS. NOT SURE IF EVERYONE WILL REACH IT...BUT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE FREEZING MARK AT SUNRISE AT ALL LOCATIONS. FREEZE
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THAT TIME. WITH SUNNY SKIES
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER THAT YESTERDAYS
READINGS...WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DRY RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP...WITH LOWS FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. CONTINUED WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY
UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AGAIN. TEMPERATURE AROUND 70 LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD COMING UP. SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
COAST...ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. TREND WITH
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND
HAVE SHOWED A BRIEF DRYING TREND LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
BREAK IN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BRIEF AS GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM GETTING ORGANIZED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS
SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE LOW. TRENDED POPS HIGHER ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE DAY. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...CONDITIONS DRY OUT AND COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND THERE REMAINS A
LITTLE BIT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS. AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS...WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 09Z. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY BUT SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL INVADE THE SKY FROM THE
SOUTH TOWARDS SUNSET AROUND 22Z-00Z. WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT OR BELOW 5 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
BY LATE MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COAST.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
