FXUS64 KTSA 222153
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER 
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST BOTTOMS OUT AND MOVES TOWARDS 
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH 
ALONG WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. 
THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND 
EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE REGION WITH 
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL 
ARKANSAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALSO COULD BE QUITE HEAVY WITH 
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST 
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. 

A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...STARTING BEFORE 
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SWITCH THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW BUT BY MID 
DAY...SNOW WILL BECOME LIKELY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLE 
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD 
BE EITHER MIXED WITH SNOW OR CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW AS IT ENDS 
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY FLURRIES STILL 
POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY. 
DUE TO THE WARM AND WET SURFACES...ANY SNOW WILL INITIALLY MELT 
AS IT FALLS. HOWEVER...1 TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE 
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412 ON ELEVATED SURFACES. BRIDGES AND 
OVERPASSES WILL BECOME SLICK AND SOME ICE/SNOW ON ROADWAYS IS POSSIBLE.

THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM AND LATER FORECASTS NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES.  
 
EXTENDED PORTIONS ALSO POSE A PROBLEM AS ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  64  37  40 /  80  80 100  40 
FSM   51  64  48  48 /  90  90 100  70 
MLC   56  66  42  44 /  60  60  90  30 
BVO   47  63  35  38 /  80  80  90  60 
FYV   50  62  45  46 /  80  90 100  70 
BYV   48  62  46  51 /  90  90  90  70 
MKO   53  66  38  39 /  80  70 100  30 
MIO   50  64  37  41 /  80  90 100  70 
F10   54  66  39  41 /  70  60  90  30 
HHW   57  67  50  50 /  60  70  90  40 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....15