FXUS61 KBGM 282034
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
334 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANY
SNOW SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING SOME RAIN WITH IT. BEHIND
THE FRONT...COLDER AIR WILL ENTER THE AREA...WITH LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 312 PM...UPSLOPE SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OTSEGO AND DELAWARE COUNTIES.
INCLUDED A LOW END CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THROUGH
THIS EVENING FROM NORTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY NORTH THROUGH
OTSEGO...EASTERN MADISON/CORTLAND AND ONEIDA COUNTIES. GIVEN THE
RADAR TRENDS I WAS TEMPTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIP
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT LAKE DELTA T'S ARE ONLY AROUND 12
EARLY TONIGHT WITH WARMING OF THE MID LAYERS. FELT IT WAS PRUDENT
TO AT LEAST KEEP IN LOW CHANCE POPS GIVEN THE UPSLOPE
POTENTIAL...EVEN IF ITS FAIRLY LIMITED. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS.
OTHER FOCUS TONIGHT IS THE AMOUNT AND TIMING OF CLEARING. GEM
REGIONAL AND LOCAL WRF STILL SEEM TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB IN
SHOWING A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST CLEARING TREND
OVERNIGHT. PROCESS WILL BE SLOW WITH CLEARING EXPECTED NEAR KELM
BY 0Z...BY 03Z ON A LINE FROM KITH TO KBGM...AND PERHAPS NOT UNTIL
AFTER 06Z AT KSYR THROUGH KRME. WITH WAA AND CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE...TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE FALLING MUCH WITH MOST LOCATIONS
HOLDING IN THE 30S. IF CLEARING TREND IS FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...TEMPS MAY BE TOO WARM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY DRY AT THIS TIME...WITH
JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST...AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD
CROSS NY AND PA...ALONG AND JUST PRECEDING THE ABOVE MENTIONED
FRONT. THERE IS SOME LARGE-SCALE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES...AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS DEVELOP
FOR A TIME. HOWEVER...THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE FAST MOVING...AND THE
OVERALL MOISTURE SUPPLY IS NOT THAT DEEP...AS NEITHER GULF OR
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SEEM TO GET INVOLVED. THUS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
MONDAY AFTERNOON...SOME DRIER AIR AND SINKING MOTION SET IN POST-
FROPA. ACROSS CENTRAL NY...THIS SUBSIDENCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET
BY AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM LAKES ONTARIO/ERIE...AND
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TWIN TIERS. THUS...A
FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BY LATER IN THE DAY.
FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VALLEYS AND THE POCONOS)...ONCE
THE MORNING RAIN PULLS OUT...THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY...AND
SOME CLEARING COULD EVEN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PARAMETERS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LES DEVELOPMENT. FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT...IT DOESN'T LOOK
LIKE A MAJOR EVENT...WITH TRANSITIONING FLOW (300-310 TO
START...EVENTUALLY BACKING TO AROUND 270 BY LATE TUESDAY)...AND A
LOWERING INVERSION BY EARLY TUESDAY. CERTAINLY...SOME
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT THE ABOVE MENTIONED REASONING
SUGGESTS TOP END AMOUNTS OF JUST A FEW INCHES IN ANY ONE AREA.
OBVIOUSLY...LATER SHIFTS WILL FURTHER ASSESS THE SITUATION...AS IT
GETS CLOSER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MED RANGE FCST THIS MORNING AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEEP CONSENSUS DURING THE WEDS- FRI TIME PERIOD AT
BAY. BASE FCST WILL CONTINUE WITH 27/18Z HPC GUIDANCE PROGS. AFTER
WANING LAKE EFFECT ON TUESDAY AND A DRY DAY FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING EAST FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC
STATES...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE
REGION. THE 00Z ECMWF MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH 27/12Z RUN...AND
BRINGS SFC LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. THE 00Z GFS LOOKS SIMILAR TO 18Z RUN WITH THE LOW
SWEEPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. LATEST RUN IS CONSIDERABLY
FASTER THAN MOST SOLUTIONS. THE GFS DOES SEEM TO BE TRENDING
FURTHER WWD FROM 12Z YESTERDAY AND POSSIBLY STARTING TO COME IN
LINE WITH ECMWF IDEAS. GLOBAL CANADIAN GEM IS SOLIDLY IN THE EC
CAMP. THE CURRENT HPC GUIDANCE THAT LEANED WITH ECMWF ENSEMBLES
APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A COMPROMISE OF BETWEEN THE EC/GFS. THE
ONLY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE I'LL MAKE THIS MORNING WILL BE TO
INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA LATER
WEDS AFTERNOON AS THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE THE ARRIVAL
OF WAA PRECIP SHIELD AHEAD OF THE SFC LOWS WILL ARRIVE BEFORE 00Z
THURS. OTHERWISE...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF A MORE
INLAND...AND THUS WARMER/MARGINAL SNOW TRACK DRIVEN ONLY BY
DIURNAL TEMP TENDENCIES AND ELEVATION FOR POTENTIAL OF ACCUM
SNOWS. ENHANCED THE POP GRIDS TO THE E/SE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON
FRIDAY AS THERMAL...MOISTURE AND WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT A GOOD
CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATED AS OF 1244 PM...PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AND
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN WITH WARMER AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT...THUS CUTTING DOWN ON LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE CLEARING EXPECTED LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.
KELM AND KAVP HAVE ALREADY SEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP AND
WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES AS CLEARING TO OUR SOUTHWEST
WILL MAKE A VERY SLOW PROGRESS EAST. MVFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBGM/KITH/KSYR THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z AND PERHAPS THROUGH 06Z AT
KRME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH 21Z BUT THEN A
MARKED DECREASE IS EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
NEXT SYSTEMS MOVES IN TOMORROW WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
SUN NGT TO TUE NGT...MVFR/VFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
WED...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
UPDATED...SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THE RECORD FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF CALENDAR DAYS WITH LESS THAN
ONE INCH OF SNOW WILL BE TIED WITH THE CLIMATE REPORT ISSUED THIS
EVENING. WITH NO SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE RECORD SHOULD BE BROKEN ON SUNDAY. THE SYRACUSE AREA
HAS NOT HAD AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY SINCE
FEBRUARY 24TH. THE WHOLE MONTH OF MARCH HAD LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW WHICH SET A RECORD. THIS DATA WAS ACCESSED FROM THE THREADEX
DATABASE USING DATA FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA...NOT JUST THE AIRPORT.
THESE RECORDS GO BACK TO 1902.
BELOW IS A LIST OF THE TOP 5 ALL TIME LONGEST STRETCHES WITHOUT AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ON ANY CALENDAR DAY FOR SYRACUSE.
YEAR DAYS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
1) 1946 276 DAYS FEB 28TH TO NOV 30TH
1) 2009 276 DAYS FEB 25TH TO NOV 28TH SO FAR
3) 1998 274 DAYS MAR 23RD TO DEC 21ST
4) 1978 265 DAYS MAR 7TH TO NOV 26TH
5) 1941 263 DAYS MAR 22ND TO DEC 9TH
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...HEDEN
CLIMATE...
