FXUS61 KPBZ 031509
AFDPBZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1009 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS THAT WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND FALLING TEMPERATURES. COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF RIDGES WITH STRONG GRADIENT FLOW BEHIND
SURFACE LOW OVER NEW YORK. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AND LET ADVISORY EXPIRE. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE RIDGES AND ALONG I-80.
FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS INTO
FRIDAY MAINLY NORTH AND ALONG I-80 AND ACROSS THE RIDGES. STORM
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINAS SHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND MODELS ARE TRYING TO THROW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST RIDGES FOR SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
RIDGES FOR ALL SNOW AS THICKNESS WOULD SUPPORT. AS OF NOW...
HIGHEST QPF WILL STAY EAST SO NOTHING SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES NOT FAR FROM
MAV MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
BROAD BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROJECTED OVER CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE RAPIDLY MOVING
DISTURBANCES OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY AIR AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE LIMITING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BEST
OPPORTUNITY TO EXPERIENCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE OVER AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH DUE TO THE COLD FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN PA THIS MORNING...EXITING
TO THE EAST BY LATE MORNING. PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED TO SCATTERED
SHWRS...THUS WILL KEEP PREVAILING WORDING OUT OF THE TERMINALS.
W/SW WINDS ARE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
WINDS ALOFT BEGINNING TO DECREASE. THUS...WILL REMOVE LLWS FOR MOST
TERMINALS...RETAINING LLWS FOR DUJ/LBE/MGW TIL 14Z. AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS LOOSEN LATER TODAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10-12KT THIS
AFTN. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS COLD ADVECTION WORKS IN...WITH
SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PIT BY OVERNIGHT TNGT.
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOW END VFR TO
MVFR RANGE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO CLIP WV/MD SATURDAY FOR AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS WITH
LOW END VFR CLOUDS PERSISTING FURTHER NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY FOR DRY/MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO CROSS MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
