FXUS61 KILN 051736
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1236 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE POPS AS HIGH AS CATEGORICAL NEAR
PORTSMOUTH WHERE SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED LIGHTLY. WEATHER WILL DRY
OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES
EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT.
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.
ON SUNDAY...AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION.
GIVEN COLD START AND WEAK RETURN FLOW DURING THE DAY...GFS MOS
AGAIN SEEMS TOO WARM. HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE COLDER NAM MOS
VALUES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S
SOUTH.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FAST MOVING S/WV WILL MOVE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A
WEAK COLD FRONT EAST ACRS OUR AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SO...HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR THE PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70.
FARTHER SOUTH...SNOW WILL MIX WITH A LITTLE RAIN DURING THE MID
MORNING TO EARLY AFTN HOURS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
AFTN. AT THIS TIME...HAVE KEPT PCPN ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...IF COLD
AIR REMAINS A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED...A WINTRY MIX MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACRS NRN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...A STRONGER...MORE
VIGOROUS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUED TO HONE IN ON A COMMON SOLUTION WHICH
WOULD KEPT PCPN IN LIQUID FORM ACRS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS JUST TO THE NW OF THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. MOST LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT
RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
SOME POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SWEEP
EASTWARD. DID NOT GET TOO FANCY WITH TEMPERATURE CURVES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM IS STILL 4 TO 5 DAYS
AWAY AND SUBJECT TO MODEL OSCILLATIONS. ONE OF THE BIG CONCERNS
WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH SHOULD POTENTIAL
WIND HEADLINES BE NEEDED.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FCST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...MOVING
EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. A FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM
MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER MVFR CLOUDS DISSIPATE BY 22Z...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE FORECAST. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AT ALL SITES BY
23Z. CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN AROUND 13Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...WITH DIRECTION BECOMING SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
