FXUS63 KFGF 020038 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PCPN. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST 
SURFACE ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN N 
WI...WITH AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING THROUGH NW MN ALONG A 
BJI-TVF-HCO LINE. WHEN COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS REMAIN IN 
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE EVOLUTION 
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THUS...DID NOT NEED TO MAKE ANY CHANGES 
TO THE POP FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...BUT DID MAKE 
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS. 

WITH THE SYSTEM PRETTY WELL ON TRACK...THE PCPN HAS STARTED 
DIMINISHING IN THE MAJORITY OF THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST 
SNOWFALL TOTALS FOUND AS EXPECTED IN THE N PARTS OF NE ND AND NW MN. 
THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BEST ENHANCEMENT MOVING OUT OF 
THE KMVX RADAR COVERAGE INTO THE KDLH RADAR COVERAGE. WITH SOME 
VSBYS STILL LESS THAN 2 MILES IN NW MN AND CALLS TO AREA SHERIFFS 
DEPARTMENTS INDICATING PLENTY OF TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...DECIDED TO 
EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF NW MN UNTIL 
04Z...AND LET THE REST OF THE AREA EXPIRE AT 00Z AS PLANNED.  

IN ADDITION...THE WINDS IN ALL AREAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW WIND 
ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY AS OF 00Z AS 
WELL. REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH FEW ADDITIONAL CHANGES 
NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN
ALL BUT THE DVL AREA AS -SN AND BR CONTINUE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE NW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TIMING OF WAVES IN CYCLONIC
FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGES. 12Z MODELS
INITIALIZED WITH MINIMAL ERRORS AND IN DECENT AGREEMENT. WILL USE
A BLEND.

WED-FRI...REGION WILL BE IN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH PERIODIC
WAVES PROVIDING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE THREE DAY PERIOD COULD BE UP TO 4 INCHES
(MOST LIKELY AN INCH OR TWO). PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONSIDERING SYNOPTIC SET-UP. THUS...DIURNAL RANGES RATHER MINIMAL
WITH MIN/MAX TEMPS A BIT LOWER EACH DAY.

LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-MON)...THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM
ARE DAILY TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD APPROACH 0 DEGREES
ACROSS NE ND AND N MN. THEREFORE...LEANED TO THE ECMWF AND GFS.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
MINIMAL CHANCES OF SOME FLURRIES OVER THE N PLAINS...BUT KEPT
MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST DRY SINCE FLURRIES ARE NEGLIGIBLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ005-
     006-008-009-013>017.

&&

$$
NG