FXUS64 KOHX 260951
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
351 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER S 
IA...WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW ON WI-IL BORDER. 
ALL MODELS FORECAST THIS STORM SYSTEM TO FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE NE...
BUT EVER SO SLOWLY...INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

BECAUSE OF THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM...A DEEP LAYER OF 
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA INTO MON. SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE HOWEVER WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE MID STATE SUN NIGHT
...AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS STATES
EXTENDS E INTO OUR AREA.

AS THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS NE...SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE 
AROUND THE LOW AND MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TN MAINLY DURING SUN 
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUN NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW 
FLURRIES OVER N AND NE PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE. ONCE THE SHORT 
WAVES MOVE E OF THE MID STATE....UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ENSUE AND 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE.

AFTER TUE...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT 
OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN AREA AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES. UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW BECOMES SW TO NE ACROSS OUR AREA...AND A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL THEN MOVE NE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW POP EVENTS INTO FRI.

HAVE GONE MORE WITH AVERAGE OF MOS NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      46  30  41  24 /   5  10  10  10 
CLARKSVILLE    44  29  38  23 /  10  10  10  10 
CROSSVILLE     42  27  40  22 /   5   5  10  10 
COLUMBIA       47  30  43  25 /  10  10  10  10 
LAWRENCEBURG   47  28  45  24 /  10  10  10  10 
WAVERLY        45  29  40  24 /  10  10  10  10 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
STEIGERWALDT