FXUS62 KJAX 010203
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
903 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009
...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY...
.UPDATE...COLD FRONT IS KNOCKING AT THE DOOR OF OUR NW ZONES. A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS STRETCHES FROM WILLACOOCHEE TO N OF BAXLEY.
EXPECT ONLY LIGHT RAIN AS THE BAND HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY PAST
COUPLE HOURS. THREE-HOURLY PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE
BEEN ALMOST 4MB...AND NW WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 20-25 MPH. WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE QUITE THAT STRONG AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT...BUT COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NRN ZONES BY
MORNING. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID 40S N TO MID 50S S AS FRONT
STALLS NEAR OUR SRN BORDER BY DAYBREAK. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20% FOR NE FL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUE AS STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN GULF. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY N OF I-10 TUE NGT. MAIN EVENT OCCURS WHEN DEEPENING
LOW MOVES INLAND OVER CENTRL GULF COAST WED. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING UPR 60S DEW PTS TO THE WARM SECTOR AND A LOW LVL JET NEAR 60
KT WILL PRODUCE STRONG SHEAR. BOTTOM LINE IS A BAND OF SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD LATE
WED. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
APPROACHES THE TERMINALS AT AROUND 06Z. MODELS INDICATE THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG FRONT TO KEEP THE SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING BUT
EXPECTING IT TO BE MAINLY LIGHT. HAVE INDICATED A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN CIGS BUT KEEP IT AT VFR THROUGH 03Z-04Z. HAVE TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBY WITH SHOWERS BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AT SSI AND BETWEEN 05Z-08Z AT
THE FL TERMINALS WITH THE COLD FRONT. HAVE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS AFTER
THAT AS LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER BEHIND COLD FRONT INTO
TUES AM.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE AND 15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE BY LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 46 63 53 71 / 40 0 70 90
SSI 52 63 58 72 / 30 0 50 80
JAX 52 67 61 77 / 30 10 50 80
SGJ 56 68 65 78 / 30 20 20 50
GNV 53 71 60 78 / 30 30 20 80
OCF 56 73 63 80 / 30 30 20 80
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
MKT/PP/PK
