FXUS63 KGID 040919
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
319 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN ISSUE THIS FORECAST IS LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ON
SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SNOW EVENT IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILERS CONFIRM
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WORKING THROUGH NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WHICH CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES OR PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. LIMITED COVERAGE
AREA AND SHORT TIME DURATION OF EARLY THIS MORNING IS ENOUGH TO KEEP
THINGS OUT OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE
FLURRIES MAY BE IN THE OFFERING.
ESSENTIALLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...THE CWFA WILL CATCH SHORT
REPRIEVE FROM THE COLD WITH SOME TEMPERATURE MODERATION AND DRY
CONDITIONS. BRISK NORTH WIND OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL NOT BE
A PLAYER EITHER...AND THAT WILL DEFINITELY MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN
THINGS NOT FEELING AS COLD. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
EAST...AND WITH THE APPROACH/DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY
OR WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SNEAK UP ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY/S INHERITED FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. A
QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL AND FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE LOCATION FOR
100KT+ H25 WINDS BE THE MAIN DRIVING FORCES. ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS
WEAKISH AT BEST...AND OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ALSO LOOKS A BIT
TAME. HPC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW IS LIKELY...
WHILE QPF FIELDS SAY AN INCH OR SO MAY ACCUMULATE. IT LOOKS LIKE A
LIGHT DURATION EVENT...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...
MOST LIKELY IN THE INCH OR SO RANGE. CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS GOOD WITH THAT IDEA. THE SNOWFALL WILL WRAP UP FAIRLY
QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON A SIDE NOTE...DRY AIR PUSHING NORTH INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY EVENING...COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE. DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME...BUT NOT OUT OF
THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
AFTER A BREAK MONDAY...THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MAKES ME A LITTLE SKITTISH WHEN IT COMES TO SNOW. DETERMINISTICALLY
SPEAKING...THE EVENING RUN OF THE GFS CAME IN PRETTY OMINOUS WITH A
DEEPENING 984MB SURFACE LOW NEAR KANSAS CITY BY TUESDAY EVENING...
WITH AN INCH OR MORE OF QPF...FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE QUICKER...AND
DEEPENS THE LOW JUST EAST OF THE CWFA...BUT STILL WOULD SUGGEST A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW /OR MORE/ WOULD FALL TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. EVEN
THE CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND WIND ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE STORM LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY SOME NEED
TO TAKE THE SNOW RISK UP A NOTCH FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT BY THE
DAYSHIFT. AT THIS POINT...WILL BEEF UP THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
WORDING SOME AND SUGGEST ALL KEEP A CLOSE ON THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009/
AVIATION...06Z TAF. EXPECT STRATUS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH BUT STILL EXPECT THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE
STRATUS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND SKIES
WILL BECOME CLEAR. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH
DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
