FXUS65 KFGZ 261628
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
929 AM MST THU NOV 26 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND 
COLD...CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES 
...BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOW 
ELEVATION RAIN.

&&
.DISCUSSION...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD FROM 
SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT WAS CLEAR ACROSS 
NORTHERN ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WERE WITHIN 2 
DEGREES OF YESTERDAY MORNING WITH LIGHTER NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. 
WILL UPDATE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO ADJUST SKY GRIDS DOWNWARD. WILL 
BE LOOKING AT INCREASING POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE 
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /340 AM MST/...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AND MILD 
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TROUGH FRIDAY.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WX PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND MAY BRING A 
INCREASING CHANCES OF LOW ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW 
SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT COLDER CONDITIONS.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS 
CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST AND IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ALONG 
THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM 
APPROACHES...IT IS FORECAST TO PULL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD 
INTO ARIZONA. IT IS EXPECTED THAT SINCE WE ARE CURRENTLY SO DRY THAT 
A GOOD 12 HOURS OF MOISTENING WILL TAKE PLACE BEFORE AND APPRECIABLE 
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA ON SUNDAY...THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD 
THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST TO 
OCCUR...ALONG WITH THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY.

BY MONDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND 
WILL BRING A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. 
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN 
STATES BY TUESDAY...HOWEVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST...SO THAT A 
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TUESDAY 
INTO THURSDAY. CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO 
REMAIN DRY. 

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT 
WINDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR 
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................TC/MAS
AVIATION...............DB

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER 
INFORMATION.