FXUS64 KBMX 102330
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEFINITELY A CHALLENGING FORECAST AHEAD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS 
A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DISTURBANCES THAT 
WILL RIDE ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES 
ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST CHALLENGE OCCURS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND 
SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO SEND
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. LOOKING AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND THE NAM...THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS
FOR A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION OF THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE...AND WET BULB TEMPERATURE PROFILES JUST ABOVE
FREEZING NEAR THE SURFACE...THE INITIAL PRECIP THAT FALLS COULD BE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK AT THIS
TIME TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE FREEZING RAIN AT THE
SURFACE...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY WITH LATER MODEL
RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
AFTER SUNRISE...AND ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN BY 10AM. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY...BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA. WE WILL GET A SHORT BREAK ON
MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NEAR THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PASS TO OUR
NORTH PROVIDING FOR A SLIGHT CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION FROM NNW TO
NNE BY MID MORNING TOMORROW. 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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