FXUS63 KMPX 302128
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
328 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...
GFS WAS VERIFYING BETTER WITH THE WAVE AND WARM ADVECTION MOVING
RAPIDLY OFF TO THE SE. NICE AREA OF VERT MOTION AND FGEN OVER NE
MN AT 18Z WITH SOME VSBYS AOB 1/2SM. THE FORCING WILL BE MAINLY
EAST OF OUR AREA AT ISSUANCE TIME. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT IN AN AREA OF SHORT
WAVE RIDGING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STREAM INTO CENTRAL MN AS
UPSTREAM WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. SEEMS TO BE
REASONABLE CONSENSUS THAT A 700 MB LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MN LEAVING OUR AREA DRY FOR TUESDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY
NIGHT. A MILD REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN MN
WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT A 50 POSSIBLE AGAIN SIMILAR
TO TODAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE NW CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING STRONG SINKING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION LOW
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT. WILL NOT GO WITH A GOOD SURGE OF CLOUDS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY WHEN DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS. WILL BROAD BRUSH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WRAP AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. REAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MODEL TRENDS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 

THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR LATER PERIODS AND INTO NEXT WEEK IS THE
CONTINUING TREND FOR A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE INTO AK AND FAR
WESTERN CANADA. THE NAEFS TEMP PROBABILITY CHARTS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
A GRADUAL TREND FOR HIGHER PROBS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR AREAS
OF THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES. FOR PRECIP CHANCES..THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SHOWING VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE PLAINS MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SUSPECT THAT SOME OF THIS DEVELOPMENT
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OUR AREA AFTER WHICH ANOTHER DUMP OF COLD AIR
SHOULD MOVE TOWARD US. HAVE MENTIONED A SMALL POP FOR MONDAY SOUTH
CENTRAL FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

WEAK/FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH OF CWA IS BRINGING
QUICK BURST OF MAINLY MID LEVEL COULD COVER FROM THE NORTH. MAIN
SFC LOW IS WELL TO THE NORTH OVER WRN ONTARIO AND THOUGH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF RADAR REFLECTIVITY EXISTS FROM CENTRAL INTO NE MN...
SNOW IS ONLY BEING REPORTED AS FAR SOUTH AS HIBBING LIKELY THANKS
TO DRY LAYER NOTED FROM H85 TO H7 ON THE 12Z KMPX RAOB. SNOW
REPORTS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF COOLER CLOUDS ON IR
IMAGERY. BASED ON RUC FORECAST... EXPECT THIS AREA TO STAY NE OF
TERMINALS...SO KEPT ANYTHING WORSE THAN A VCSH OUT OF ALL TAFS.
WINDS THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER AS PASSAGE OF A WEAK
SFC RIDGE OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE SW TO W WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BEFORE TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY SUNRISE IN
RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE NW. THIS CLIPPER WILL SWING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR FROPA
TIMING...AND EXPECT IT THROUGH AXN AROUND 15Z TUESDAY...RWF
AROUND 18Z...AND MSP AROUND 20Z. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TURN
TO THE WNW AND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME STRONG/GUSTY...THOUGH THE
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO HOLD OFF AT MSP UNTIL AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

JPR/MPG