FXUS62 KFFC 012223
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
523 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM IN THE WEST GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND GATHER STRENGTH AT THIS TIME. WHILE B0TH
THE NAM AND GFS DEEPEN THE STORM AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO SOUTH
AL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NAM IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE TIMING OF THE GFS. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY THURSDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER MOST OF CENTRAL GA
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH GA ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT GULF
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM. THE GFS QPF IS VERY HIGH WITH
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. DUE TO THE EXPECTED SPEED TRANSITION OF
THE STORM WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE REASONABLE ECMWF AND SREF QPF
AMOUNTS OF WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES. ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 4
INCHES WILL MAINLY BE IN WEST CENTRAL GA. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY.
ALSO DUE TO THE DEEPENING STORM AS IT MOVES THROUGH AL...THE
SURFACE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ENOUGH
TO WARRENT A WIND ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL GA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
GA AS WELL. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS...MAINLY IN SOUTH GA
DUE TO THE INCREASING HELICITY. HAVE CHOSEN TO STAY WITH GENERAL
TSTM AND HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN THE ZONES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM OR TWO IN CENTRAL GA ON WEDNESDAY.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 100 PERCENT FOR WEDNESDAY PERIODS AND HAVE
ACCEPTED MAV MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE GFS IS DEVELOPING ANOTHER GULF LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS WOULD SPREAD AMPLE CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES NORTHWARD INTO GA OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...PREFER THE
ECMWF THAT DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE GA/SC COASTS AND
TRACKS IT UP THE ATLANTIC COAST... RESULTING IN MUCH LESS IMPACT
HERE OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT
TRACKS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW WILL
WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS WARMED FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS FOR MOST AREAS...
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE REMAINS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW IF ADEQUATE MOISTURE CAN BE POOLED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...SUSPECT MOISTURE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SEE
ANYTHING BUT A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOL
HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO KICK EAST
OF THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
ONLY MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY ARE IN THE CSG AREA AHEAD OF THE RAIN
SHIELD. THIS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE LATEST MAV/MET GUIDANCE.
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE 00Z TAFS AND BROUGHT THE MVFR CIGS
INTO THE ATL/MCN AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...AND INTO THE AHN AREA BY
06Z. CIGS WILL LOWER AS RAIN FALLS INTO THE ATMOSPHERE AND MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE BELOW 1000FT BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. THESE WILL HOLD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AFTER FROPA THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BIGGEST PROBLEM WITH CIGS WILL BE THE DRY
SLOT AND ITS LOCATION. AT THIS POINT WILL TAKE THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE
AND KEEP CIGS LOW. NEXT PROBLEM WILL BE THE WINDS. AS THE SYSTEM
NEARS...WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE MEETING THE LLWS CRITERIA FOR MOST
AREAS BEGINNING AROUND 06Z AND GOING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z. THE WIND
SHEAR WILL EXIT TO THE CAROLINAS AFTER 18Z.
CONVECTION...CURRENT GFS/NAM INDICATING INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED...CONFINED TO SOUTH GEORGIA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.
WHILE AN ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE FROM CSG TO MCN...FEEL ATL AND
AHN AREAS SHOULD SEE ONLY RAIN AND WILL NOT INCLUDE TSRA IN ATL/AHN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 45 54 44 57 38 / 100 100 40 5 5
ATLANTA 44 57 41 54 38 / 100 100 20 5 5
BLAIRSVILLE 36 52 37 50 35 / 100 100 70 10 5
CARTERSVILLE 40 57 41 54 35 / 100 100 20 5 5
COLUMBUS 50 64 45 59 39 / 100 100 5 5 5
GAINESVILLE 43 50 42 52 39 / 100 100 40 5 5
MACON 50 63 45 61 37 / 100 100 5 5 5
ROME 42 58 42 55 38 / 100 100 40 10 10
PEACHTREE CITY 44 63 42 55 34 / 100 100 10 5 5
VIDALIA 50 65 47 62 39 / 100 100 60 5 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BIBB...
BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...
CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DAWSON...DEKALB...
DODGE...DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...
GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAMAR...LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...
MERIWETHER...MONROE...MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH
FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...
STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TROUP...
TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...
WHITE...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
BUTTS...CARROLL...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DEKALB...
DOOLY...DOUGLAS...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GLASCOCK...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HANCOCK...HARALSON...
HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...JACKSON...JASPER...JONES...
LAMAR...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...MONROE...
MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...
TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TROUP...TWIGGS...UPSON...WALTON...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WILKES...WILKINSON.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...
LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...
WHITFIELD.
&&
$$
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