FXUS63 KPAH 300545
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1145 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
18Z FRONTAL POSITION RUNS ROUGHLY FROM SPRINGFIELD/IL-
SPRINGFIELD/MO. NAM TAKES MOISTURE POOL OVER ETX/LA AND LIFTS IT
NWARD TONIGHT. NO MODEL HAS DONE VERY WELL TODAY...BUT THE NAM
PERHAPS CAPTURED THE 'LACK OF' COVERAGE THE BEST...SO WE LEANED
ITS DIRECTION TONIGHT. THIS WOULD MEAN LTL/NO EVENT IN OUR NORTH
WITH STILL HIGH (CAT) POPS IN OUR SOUTH. WE'LL MUTE THAT APPROACH
ACCORDINGLY...AS THE COLLAB PIC DICTATES. THE PCPN SHOULD BE OUT
BY 12Z SO NO LINGER INTO MON AM EITHER.
AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE TUESDAY...THE NEXT EVENT WED-WED NIGHT
STILL HAS ALOT OF QUESTION MARKS. THE NAM IS SLOWER BRINGING IT IN
ON WED AND THE ECMWF APPEARS TO STILL BE HPC/COLLAB APPROACH BY
AND LARGE. THAT'LL MEAN AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW TRACK SOUTH AND
EAST OF OUR FA. GFS WANTS TO START PCPN AFT MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT BUT
MOST MODELLING AND RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN FOR A POST 12Z WED
START TIME. SLOWER ECMWF DOES MEAN WE HAVE TO COPE WITH SOME
BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM CHANGE-OVER LATE WED NIGHT...BUT EVEN THEN THE
TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE COLD AIR COMES IN JUST AS THE MAIN
MOISTURE FIELD IS DEPARTING...SO ANY SUCH CHANGE-OVER SHOULD BE
MINIMAL IN BOTH TIME/EFFECT. IT LOOKS BEST FOR THIS TO OCCUR IN THE
NRN/ERN PTNS WHERE THE MOISTURE IS LAST TO DEPART.
AFTER THAT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY. BY DAY
7 THE MODELS FLIRT WITH ANOTHER CHC RAIN BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THEIR IS A COLLAB APPETITE FOR THIS INCLUSION JUST YET...MOSTLY
REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
ALL THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL
BUT KOWB...HOWEVER RAIN SHOULD END THERE WITHIN ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO. LOOKING AT SATELLITE...PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM...BUT
THERE ARE SOME HOLES. MOST OF THE CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
ILLINOIS...MISSOURI AND INDIANA ARE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...WITH
MAINLY VFR CIGS FURTHER NORTH. THEREFORE...WILL TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR
ALL OF THE ABOVE...WITH VFR CIGS PREDOMINANT AND TEMPO THE MVFR
CIGS FOR THE FIRST 4 HRS OF THE TAF. WOULD THINK TOWARD 10Z-
12Z...WE SHOULD BE GETTING INTO THE VFR CATEGORY...ESP AT
KCGI/KPAH AND KEVV. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THEIR DEPARTURE HOLDING OFF UNTIL 16-19Z.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
