FXUS61 KCAR 281344
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
844 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO
THE MARITIMES BY LATE TODAY. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPDATED TO CHANGE THE START TO TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY TO
CURRENT TIME SINCE ALREADY GETTING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AT SOME HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM TO
REMAINDER OF FORECAST.

AM CONTINUING WITH ADVISORY FOR WESTERN ZONES. HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE BORDER APPEARS TO BE THE CENTER FOR BEST ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY TODAY. GRIDS SHOW UP TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE QUEBEC BORDER BUT
A COUPLE EXTRA INCHES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A WEB CAM
AROUND DAAQUAM APPEARED TO INDICATE MODERATE SNOW. THE BEST QPF
WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING IN THIS REGION. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD
TAPER RAPIDLY TO THE EAST WITH SOME BRIEF DUSTINGS IN SNOW SHOWERS
UP TO AN INCH WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES OUTSIDE THE
ALLAGASH. THE HIGH TERRAIN AROUND GNR SHOULD RECEIVE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING BUT LESS THAN THE QUEBEC
BORDER REGION. WITH REGARD TO WINDS, WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR
ENTIRE FA STARTING AROUND 18Z. INCREASING INSTABILITY TODAY SHOULD
MIX DOWN WINDS OVER 45 KTS AT 925MB...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO 45MPH OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THESE WINDS WILL MOVES TOWARDS MAINE AS THE LOW
PULLS EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THIS MORNING AND
DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIND ADV WIND GUSTS SHOULD CONT THRU EVE GIVEN 925 MB WIND SPEEDS
AOA 40 KT AND STEEP SFC TO 500M LAPSE RATES. AFT 06Z...WIND SPEEDS
ALF SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY...LOWERING GUST POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.
MEANWHILE BKN-OVC SC DECK AND SCT SN SHWRS SHOULD CONT ACROSS THE
NW HLF OF THE FA TNGT INTO SUN GIVEN GFS 925-850 RH AND CU TOOL
INPUT. DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE PARTIAL CLRG. WINDS SHOULD
CONT TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON SUN.

AFT A BRIEF BREAK IN SC ACROSS NRN AREAS ERLY SUN EVE...HI AND MID
CLDS SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT S/WV SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT
LKS SUN NGT...WITH LGT SN SPREADING ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE FA BY
DAYBREAK MON. THE OPNL 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO FURTHER S TRACKING OTHER MODELS AND THE GFS ENS MEAN...IN
SHOWING THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WITH THIS S/WV TRACKING JUST N OF
THE FA. FOR NOW...WE WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND OF THE TRACK...WHICH
BRING TRANSITIONAL PRECIP OR RAIN AS FAR N AS ZONES 2 AND SRN 4
DURG THE DAY MON...BEFORE PRECIP ENDS AS SN SHWRS LATE MON INTO
MON EVE. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE FA DURING THE CORE OF THIS
EVENT THIS UPDATE.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFT A QUIET...COLDER AND RELATIVELY DRY MON NGT THRU WED...LONGER
RANGE MODELS POINT TO A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LOW PRES SYSTEM
TRACKING NE FROM THE GULF OF MEX AS A POTENT SRN STREAM S/WV
PHASES/MERGES WITH A FAIRLY STRONG ALBERTA CLIPPER S/WV. MOST OPNL
LONGER RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM MAY 
BE ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE FA THU...BUT THE OPNL 00Z GFS
AGREES WITH ITS ENS MEAN RUN IN SHOWING MORE OF A COASTAL TRACK
TOWARDS THE GULF OF ME AND BAY OF FUNDY...CLIPPING SE ME. OF
COURSE...THE DIFFERENCE OF THIS TRACK IS CRITICAL IN DETERMINING
WHAT PTNS...IF ANY WOULD BE IMPACTED BY SIGNFCNT WINTER WX. FOR
NOW...WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON THE TWO TRACKS...WHICH AGAIN
BROUGHT TRANSITIONAL PRECIP OF RN AS FAR N AS NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
AND KEPT MSLY SN FOR THE FAR NW. WENT WITH LOW LIKELY POPS THIS
EVENT LATE WED NGT INTO THU DUE TO POTENTIAL OF STRONG SRLY FLOW
ALF AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL DEEP MOISTURE ADVCN INTO THE FA.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...COLDER CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE FA ALONG
WITH TYPICAL SC/SCT SN SHWRS FOR THE NRN/WRN HLF OF THE FA THU NGT
INTO FRI.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS MOST
OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. AROUND BGR AND BHB, VFR
IS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
HAZARD THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SIGNIFICANT GUST SPREADS AND LOW
LEVEL MECHANICAL WIND SHEAR. WINDS AROUND 2000FT WILL APPROACH 45
KTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NW DURING THIS TIME. AFTWRDS...MVFR
XPCTD TO CONT SAT NGT ACROSS NRN TAF SITES WITH SC DECK WITH VFR
CONTG ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR SUN...ALBEIT
LOW VFR FOR NRN TAF SITES WITH ANY REMAINING BKN-OVC SC DECK. 
VFR SUN NGT...XCPT MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE LATE SUN NGT OVR NRN TAF
SITES LATE...THEN MVFR/IFR ALL SITES MON IN RN/SN. CLGS/VSBYS
SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN MON NGT AND TUE TO HI MVFR NRN TAF SITES AND
VFR DOWNEAST SITES...THEN MSLY VFR ALL SITES ON WED.
&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS ALMOST STRONG
ENOUGH FOR A STORM WARNING...BUT WE HAVE ELECTED TO STAY JUST
BELOW THIS THRESHOLD FOR NOW. STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW GALE ON
SUN AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED STRONG MSL PRES GRAD MOVES E OF THE
FA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABV SCA THRESHOLDS MOST
PDS FOLLOWING SUN THRU THE REMINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AND CONTG
INTO THE LONG TERM.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MEZ001>006-010-
     011-015>017-029>032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     MEZ001-003-004-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MWALKER/DUDA
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MWALKER
MARINE...MWALKER/VJN