FXUS62 KMLB 300800
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...WARMING TREND THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY...
CURRENT/TODAY...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS RELATIVELY CLOSE AND IN
THE 50S AREAWIDE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. A
FEW SITES ACROSS OUR SOUTH CWA IN OKEECHOBEE AND FORT PIERCE HAVE
SEEN VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
CALM WINDS. FURTHER NORTHWARD THE HIGH DECK OF CIRROSTRATUS HAS
INHIBITED FOG FORMATION THUS FAR. MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW AREAS
EXPERIENCE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAWN. EXPECTING OUR CALM WINDS TO
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS ON AVERAGE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS THE RESULT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING
FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN ATLC AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES BEGINNING IN THE 50S EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
EXTENDING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN GULF COAST
STATES WILL CONTINUE ITS MIGRATION SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK TUE. MOISTURE SEEMS LACKING AND THE LATEST RUN
OF THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION THAN
THE GFS. WILL LEAVE 10% POPS ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD FOR
NOW. GRADUAL INCREASING CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL KEEP
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AREAWIDE. THE SHORT-RANGE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND WILL ALLOW
FUTURE SHIFTS TO MONITOR AND ADJUST FORECAST GRIDS IF APPLICABLE.
TUE...STALLED FRONT ROUGHLY OVER CENTRAL FL WL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. LACK OF MOISTURE HOWEVER WILL
ONLY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM AROUND THE
ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
BACK TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WRN GOMEX INTO TUES NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN NORTHWARD
MOVEMENT AS A WARM FRONT WITH A LOW END CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO TUES NIGHT.
WED-FRI...STRONG GULF LOW SHOWS SOMEWHAT FASTER SOLNS DURG
EVOLUTION WED...ESP ON OOZ ECM/GFS RUNS WHICH LIFT THE DVLPG SFC
LOW POLEWARD AT A MORE RAPID PACE. THIS SCENARIO ALBEIT FARTHER
FROM THE AREA STILL PLACES A RATHER STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THE
AREA DURING WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY APPROACH OF A PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE LINE. WINDS HAVE DROPPED SLIGHTLY (ABOUT 10 MPH OVERALL)
THAN WHAT WAS ADVERTISED THIS TIME LAST EVENING. NO SIG CHANGE TO
POPS OR TIMING DURING THE APPROACH OF LOW AND ASCD COLD FRONT.
EXTENDED...THE WORKWEEK WILL END WITH COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS
FRI WITH 30S POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY MORNING WEST OF INTERSTATE FOUR.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
PROVIDING LOCAL VEERING OF WIND TO STABLE NORTHEAST FLOW BY
SATURDAY WITH A MORE EASTERLY WIND REGIME SUNDAY AND A WARMING
TREND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT SPREADS MAY RESULT IN SOME 3-5SM
BR TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN OSCEOLA CTY INTO
OKEECHOBEE CTY WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS BEEN OPTIMIZED DUE TO
THE LACK OF CIRROSTRATUS THAT HAS FORMED NORTHWARD. CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...LIGHT SSE WINDS 5-10 KTS WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE SSW THROUGH THE DAY...ESP NORTH LEGS AS HIGH
PRESSURE LOSES ITS GRIP AND DRIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLC AS WELL AS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTHWEST. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
A DEVELOPING SMALL EAST SWELL TO JUST OVER 2 FT AND THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE CYCLE WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SWELL PERIOD AT
BUOY 41009 WILL BE BETWEEN 9 AND 10 SECONDS.
HEADLINES WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY WITH APPROACH OF STRONGER
WINDS AND REMAIN PAST TIME OF THURSDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE LIKELY INTO
FRIDAY OVER A PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 77 57 73 65 / 10 10 20 30
MCO 76 60 77 64 / 10 10 20 20
MLB 79 58 78 69 / 10 10 10 20
VRB 80 58 79 68 / 10 10 10 20
LEE 76 57 74 63 / 10 10 20 20
SFB 78 58 77 65 / 10 10 20 20
ORL 77 60 76 64 / 10 10 20 20
FPR 79 56 80 68 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST
