FXUS63 KMPX 160413 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1015 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WINDS THIS EVENING...AND PROVIDE A
RATHER QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST.
THEN SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. WILL TRY AND SLOW DROP TO NEAR STEADY/SLOWLY RISE OVER
THE WESTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO THE
TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE HIGH EXITS TO THE EAST.  

NEXT SHORT WAVE COMING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BRUSHING THE
NORTHERN CWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 12Z
NAM_WRF A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE AS IT MOVES EAST...WITH
THE GFS WEAKER. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND WITH A LOW POP OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA. MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT IF
ENOUGH LIFT IS GENERATED WITH WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.

NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.
12Z ECMWF IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS NOW...AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. 

SOME DISCREPANCY IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS IN DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF
DIVING A WAVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS IT CARVED OUT THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA. THE 12Z ECMWF
COME IN WITH SOMETHING SIMILAR...DRAGGING A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST ROUGHLY IN THE SAME TIME PERIOD. WILL MENTION SOME LOW
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW..AND SEE IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
IN THE LONGER TERM. OVERALL..EXPECT SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN COOL BACK
BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE CLIPPER EXITS THE REGION. 

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

LGT WNDS THRU TAF PRD TURNING SELY OVERNITE AS HI PRES RIDGE NOW OVR 
E MN TRANSLATES INTO WI.  BAND OF MID CLDS WITH BASES 5-9K PUSHING
EWRD 40 KTS ACRS CNTL AND S MN.  THEY SHUD CLR AXN BY 10Z AND MV E 
OF RMDR OF TAF SITES BFR 17Z. SEE SPECIFIC TAFS FOR TIMING. WK 
RETURNS ON RADARS ASSOC WITH THESE CLDS...BUT BASES APR TOO HIGH FOR 
PCPN TO REACH SFC AT TAF SITES.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

DWE/BAP