FXUS62 KJAX 040807 CCA
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO WWA SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
305 AM EST FRI DEC 4 2009
...RAIN RETURNS TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
.SHORT TERM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE AREA IN FAST
SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL
MOVE ENEWD THROUGH THE GULF AND CNTRL/NRN FL TODAY INCREASING THE
RAIN CHANCES BY AFTERNOON. STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
NM WILL MOVE EAST AND DEVELOP SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONT NOW OVER S
FL TONIGHT. FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO CENTRAL FL AS RAIN SPREADS
NORTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES(MARION...PUTNAM...FLAGLER COUNTIES) WHERE MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST. STABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH
SO TSTM DEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED OVER SE GA/NE FL WITH WARM SECTOR
REMAINING OVER S FL. SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST ENDING THE
RAIN BY MIDDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OVER
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES PRODUCING NICE CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
DOMINATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH
SEVERAL WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF RAIN.
A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY APPROACH BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK PRODUCING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...
LIKELY REACHING KGNV BY AROUND 15Z. THESE SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO REACH KJAX...KCRG AND KVQQ BY 21Z AND THEN KSSI BY 00Z. AS
SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND
MAINTAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...NO HEADLINES UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS.
THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY CAP WINDS AT 15 KNOTS FOR OUR NEARSHORE
LEGS...JUST BELOW SCEC HEADLINES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 56 44 54 36 / 30 80 60 0
SSI 60 50 59 44 / 40 80 60 0
JAX 58 47 59 38 / 50 90 70 0
SGJ 61 51 62 45 / 70 90 90 0
GNV 57 48 59 36 / 60 90 70 0
OCF 59 49 63 38 / 70 100 90 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO
60 NM OFFSHORE.
ZIBURA/ZAPPE
