FXUS61 KBTV 280612
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
112 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT TO EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY. THIS STORM WILL BRING
RAIN...HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...AND WIND TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BREAK IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
SNOW AND RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 107 AM EST SATURDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR WIND GUSTS
TO 45 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND GENERALLY 30-40 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 7" REPORTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VERMONT.
UP TO 1500 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER EARLIER TONIGHT BEFORE THE
WINDS KICKED UP. UTILITIES IN THOSE AREAS CITED TREES ON
WIRES...MOST LIKELY DUE TO HEAVY WET SNOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ADVISORIES FOR HIGH ELEVATIONS
SNOWS...GENERALLY ABOVE 1000 FEET. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS
WAY WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST. OVERALL GRIDS LOOK GOOD AND HAVE JUST TWEAKED ZONE
TEXT TO COVER TRENDS BASED ON RADAR...OBSERVATIONS...AND SPOTTER
REPORTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 1500 FEET AND WILL BE
LOWERING TO AROUND 1000 FEET OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 PM EST FRIDAY...SNOW/RAIN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE SATURDAY...BEING MORE CONFINED TO HIR TRRN.
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHWRS COME TO AN END SATURDAY NITE AND GRADIENT
SLACKENS AS LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY THRU ERN CANADA...AND WEAK
RIDGING DEVELOPS BY SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON MANY RIVERS...BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED. AS FOR THE
WINDS...THE STRONG N-NW WNDS WHICH DEVELOP THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE DURING SATURDAY. DON'T EXPECT THAT WE WILL MIX ALL THE 50
KT 850MB WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE...BUT EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH.
A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM APRCHS SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT INCRG CLDS WITH SNOW/RAIN SHWRS
LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHUD BE
LIGHT...AS QPF THRU 12Z MONDAY EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EST FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...AND SHOULD BE ENDING BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME WRAP AROUND
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY...TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COATS.
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND DAY 5.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
EXIST THROUGH 12Z AS WELL WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 40
KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RANGE FROM LIFR TO MVFR
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z WITH RAIN AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
SNOW ABOVE 1500 FEET PRODUCING MVFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH 12Z.
AFTER 12Z...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY FROM 12Z THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. STILL LOOKING AT MVFR CEILINGS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AT
MOST LOCATIONS. WHILE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL COME TO AN
END...GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35
KNOT RANGE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. WEDNESDAY...MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-016>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ029>031-034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON/SISSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...EVENSON/NEILES
