FXUS61 KBGM 041132
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
632 AM EST FRI DEC 4 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA
TODAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD, WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO EASTERN NEW
YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY, WHILE A SHARP
UL TROF REMAINS FIXED FROM ONTARIO PROVINCE BACK THROUGH MICHIGAN
AND INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
WE HAVE A SMALL WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING INTO ONEIDA COUNTY, AS WINDS BRIEFLY ALIGN OFF
ONTARIO. LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, WITH THE BAND FORECAST TO
BE WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING.
A FAIR DEGREE OF SUNSHINE IS FORECAST TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81. TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE LOW POWER OF THE SUN FIGHTS AGAINST COOLING
ALOFT (-4C TO -7C AT 850H).
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UL JET WILL DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY,
ALLOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TO
STRENGTHEN AND PUSH NORTHWARD.
EURO AND NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT KEEPING ATLANTIC SEABOARD LOW WELL
OFF THE COAST. WE ARE KEEPING A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE
FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS, WHILE CONFINING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL.
THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THE STORM TO OUR REGION WILL BE A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. -8C 850H ISOTHERM WILL DIP INTO
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, BACK THROUGH SOUTHERN PA BY EARLY SUNDAY.
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY OVER UPSTATE NY AND NORTHEASTERN PA THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT
AS WINDS SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. THIS
NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK LOW MOVING FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO TORONTO
ON MONDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT BUT BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LOW...IE THE FARTHER NORTH
YOU GO.
BEHIND THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT TUESDAY. THE MAIN INTEREST WILL TURN TO A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN KEEPING THIS LOW TO OUR
SOUTH...WHICH WOULD KEEP US ON THE COLD AND POTENTIALLY SNOWY SIDE
OF THINGS...OR TRACKING IT TO OUR WEST...WHICH WOULD BE MORE LIKE
THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS. ONE HAS TO LOOK NO FARTHER THAN THE EURO MODEL
TO SEE THIS INCONSISTENCY AS THE 0Z RUN FROM LAST NIGHT HAD AN 986
MB LOW NEAR ATLANTIC CITY BY 0Z THURSDAY WHILE THE NEW 12Z EURO HAS
JUST COME IN WITH A 980 MB LOW NEAR DETROIT! WHILE THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN INCONSISTENT...IT DOES APPEAR THEY ARE TRENDING BACK TOWARD A
WARMER SOLUTION...WHICH THEY HAD DAYS AGO...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND
EURO BOTH SHOWING A TRACK TO OUR WEST. OBVIOUSLY MUCH CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. EVEN WITH THE WESTERN TRACK THE EURO IS COLD
ENOUGH TO SUGGEST SOME SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WORDED THE FORECAST EITHER RAIN OR
SNOW DURING THIS TIME BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK WLY FLOW WILL CONT THRU TODAY AS THE FCST AREA SITS BETWEEN
TO WX SYSTEMS. WEAK CAA WITH THE FLOW AND THE FETCH OF THE LAKES
WILL KEEP BKN TO SCT CLDS ACROSS THE AREA THRU TODAY...WITH ANY
LGT LES GNRLY OUT OF THE FCST AREA.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...VFR.
SAT/SUN...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE SNOW BANDS VCNTY KRME/KSYR.
MON...VFR
TUE...VFR/MVFR SHRA/SHSN.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...DGM
