FXUS61 KGYX 141943
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
243 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE MARITIMES
TUESDAY NIGHT SETTING UP A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES IN THE MARITIMES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXIT THE COAST BY EVENING. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM FAR NORTHERN MAINE TO THE UPPER LAKES. THE LOW
CLOUD CONTINUED TO LINGER ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AS WELL
AS THE UPPER HALF OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...HIGHER CLOUDS HAD BEGUN STREAMING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE WEST. THE QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE
COLD FRONT WILL GO BEFORE STALLING...WHICH WILL HELP DETERMINE
THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ON TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS TAKES THE LOW ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH A
SWATH OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
TRACK. ELSEWHERE...WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW TONIGHT
WITH TRACE AMOUNTS...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS...AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE NEW PACKAGE FOR NOW.
I USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV NUMBERS TO INITIALIZE MIN AND MAX
TEMPERATURES THEN ADJUSTED FROM THERE. I USED A MANUAL BLEND OF
THE LATEST NAM/GFS NUMBERS TO DERIVE 1ST AND 2ND PERIOD POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS POINT FOR THE NORTHEAST.
UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GO
NEGATIVE AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
OVER THE MARITIMES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF
WINDY AND COLD WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS BUT SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION FOR THIS
EVENT.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKING GOOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION...CRESTING ON SATURDAY. SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ALTHOUGH UPPER TROUGH LINGERING IN
EASTERN QUEBEC AND LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.
SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPIN UP
SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST WELL SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
LOW CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLY BRUSHING COASTAL SECTIONS DURING THE DAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE MARITIMES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY RESULTING ONCE AGAIN IN A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE COMBINE OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...LINGERING MVFR VCNTY OF KLEB WITH
AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING AFTER 05Z ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. WIDESPREAD MVFR EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF IFR.
LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME
MVFR CEILINGS INT HE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...GALE WARNINGS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
