FXUS62 KTBW 221353
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
853 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AND AN
UPPER JET AXIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
A LARGE CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS AND TIMING
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST VIA MODELS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. GIVEN THIS WILL
BUMP OF SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE ZONES FOR
THESE AREAS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ADJUST MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES AS WELL WHERE READINGS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SHOULD BE THE RULE...WITH LOWER 60S FAR NORTH. OTHER THAN THESE
MINOR TWEAKS...NO OTHER GRID/ZONE CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. 

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST 
WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS
WILL SUPPORT A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO
15 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FEET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...SO NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CURRENTLY HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM
PASCO COUNTY NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT AM HAVING DOUBTS 
WHETHER THIS WILL PAN OUT AS CURRENT DEW POINTS ARE RUNNING WELL
ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE VALUES AS I WRITE. IN ADDITION WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WARNING
AREA MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN AS WELL THUS TEMP/DEW POINT
SPREADS NEEDED TO PRODUCE THE CRITICAL RH VALUES MAY NOT BE MET. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMP/DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY TRENDS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AND IF NECESSARY WILL CANCEL THE RED
FLAG IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR 
     CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL 
AVIATION...63/JILLSON