FXUS64 KOHX 031231 CCA
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
630 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009
.UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
NW FLOW 5-10 KTS W/PRES GRAD DECREASE TDAY. MVFR CIGS TDAY.
STRATOCU DISSIPATES THIS EVENING WITH NO CIGS EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW
OVER OH CONTINUES TO PULL NEWD. IN THE MEANTIME...THE SHORTWAVE
OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEWD AND DEEPEN SGFNTLY
OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. THIS WAVE WILL GENERATE A STRONG SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN GULF BY FRI EVE. THE LOW MOVES ENE
ACROSS THE GULF AND NEWD ACROSS FL WITH EXTENSIVE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
OVER THE SERN STATES. THE MIX OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE LEADS TO A
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE ERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM LATE
FRI NGT THROUGH SAT. OF COURSE...POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND
GREATLY ON THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW. FOR NOW...POPS/SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE FAIRLY LOW...BUT THESE MAY INCREASE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT TIME.
THE LOW SYSTEM PASSES ON TO THE NE INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA SAT NGT. THE NEXT WAVE DROPS INTO
THE NRN PLAINS ON SAT BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS DEEP AS THE PREVIOUS WAVE
AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE MS/TN/OH VALLEYS ON SUN/SUN NGT. WITH
ONLY A WEAKLY DEFINED FRONT AT THE SFC AND NO DEFINED LOW OVER THE
GULF COAST I HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW FOR THIS PD.
THE NEXT WAVE IS A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM AS IT DROPS INTO THE PLAINS
ON TUE. IT FORMS A FAIRLY STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON
TUE PM WHICH IT THEN SHOOTS NEWD ACROSS THE MIDSTATE TUE EVE AND THEN
INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY WED AM. THE GFS IS INDICATING A
STRONG PUNCH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIP.
THE STRONG SFC RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDSTATE ON THU WITH MORE
COLD AIR FOR THE AREA. AM A BIT CONFLICTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ON WED.
CONFIDENCE GRAPHICS INDICATE THAT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A SGFNT SPREAD
BETWEEN MEMBERS. DECIDED TO SOFT PEDAL MENTION OF FROZEN PRECIP
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND LIMIT THE MENTION OF MIXED PRECIP TO WED NGT
BUT NOT WED. IF I BELIEVED THE GFS COMPLETELY(WHICH I DONT) I
WOULD HAVE FALLING TEMPS ON WED WITH A MIX OF PRECIP WED PM AND
SNOW WED NGT. BUT...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE GFS CONFIRM THIS IDEA
BEFORE PUTTING IT IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
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