FXUS64 KOHX 251156 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
556 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ON SE IA-NE MO BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING.
LOW NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED AND THUS WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE
TN AT THIS TIME. EXPECT 12Z PASSAGE AT BNA AND 16-17Z AT CSV. LARGE
AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF AREA...BUT SOME VFR CIGS W TN...AND
IFR CIGS AT CSV. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY MOST OF TODAY.
BNA...EXPECT MVFR CIGS MOST OF DAY...VFR CIGS AFTER 04Z. VSBYS VFR
THROUGHOUT.
CSV...IFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING...MVFR CIGS AFTER 16Z. VSBYS VFR
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...THE EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWED LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER NORTHEAST MO. A MAJOR WINTER STORM WAS
UNDERWAY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE...WHILE WET AND
WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED FROM THE LOW TO JUST WEST OF THE MID STATE AT 08Z. BANDS
OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE MID
STATE...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND WIND ACROSS THE PLATEAU
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONGEST WINDS
WILL MOVE OUT OF AREA SOON...SO WE WILL CANCEL OUR WIND ADVISORY
SHORTLY.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPIN OVER IOWA
AS A COUPLE OF UPPER LOWS COME TOGETHER OVER THAT REGION. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID STATE...REACHING BNA AROUND 11Z AND THE
PLATEAU ABOUT 15Z. A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY TODAY...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
CAUSING FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS WILL FALL
ENOUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SMALL FLURRIES IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. ALTHOUGH WE
ARE DROPPING THE WIND ADVISORY...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE
BRISK WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES.

TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE PARTIAL CLEARING WITH TEMPS DIPPING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S AND SOME WIND TO MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. 
WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...MID TN WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW AS THE MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING CHILLY AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
WE WILL UNDERCUT MOS VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY HIGHS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POSSIBLE FLURRIES FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. 

FAIR WX EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP MIDWEEK. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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