FXUS64 KLUB 262042
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
242 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.SHORT TERM...
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS COMMON TONIGHT AS BENIGN WEATHER
CONTINUES.
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE/WEST TROUGH/EAST SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSISTS OVER
THE CONUS WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HOWEVER CURRENT VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD BENEATH OF THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE OVER
BAJA/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. A CIRRUS SHIELD IS ADVECTING INTO THE
WEAKENING UA RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS ATTM...AND THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...EFFECTS OF THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL LESSEN
AS THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES TOWARD THE GULF COAST. THUS SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN VEERED TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE.
DESPITE A LINGERING DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT WITH TD/S RANGING FROM 10
TO 20 DEGREES...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SUSTAINED DOWNSLOPE
WIND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED BAJA SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS OVER WEST
TEXAS FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH HEIGHT GRADIENTS/WINDS ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO
BE MODEST WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE...MSLP GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BREEZY DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS
WILL SUPPORT WARM CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR SOME AREAS. THE DRY/WARM BREEZES MAY WARRANT SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SHY OF CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
MODELS HAVE NOW COME TO SOME SORT OF AGREEMENT WITH CUTTING OFF A
LOW ON SATURDAY MORNING OFF THE WEST COAST AND DIVING DOWN INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS AS WELL AS MOST GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE CUT
OFF MAY THEN OPEN UP AS A WAVE TOWARDS MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY CROSSES THE STATE. HAVE INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY WITH
ASCENT SPREADING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE SLOW
SPEED AND DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM...WOULD EXPECT HIGHEST POP CHANCES
TO BE ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO BE DEPICTED AS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESS PROGS STILL SHOW MOSTLY RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP
ON SUNDAY EVENING A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MAY BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY
ON THE CAPROCK AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH A DRY AIR
INTRUSION ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION
IS NOT EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO WARM LAYER ALOFT. DETAILS ARE
STILL SKETCHY ON SNOW ACCUMULATION BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHEST NEAR THE TEXAS...NEW MEXICO STATE LINE.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY ON
TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF PRECIP EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. THEREFORE...HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ON
TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE UNCHANGED WITH
MUCH BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES STARTING ON SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARMUP THROUGH MIDWEEK. JDV
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 29 68 32 68 32 / 0 0 0 0 10
TULIA 33 67 36 70 33 / 0 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 32 68 38 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 31 69 37 74 40 / 0 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 33 71 39 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 32 69 38 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 33 70 37 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 35 73 39 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 10
SPUR 34 70 37 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 10
ASPERMONT 35 71 44 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
20/01
