FXUS63 KMPX 142048
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
248 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FIRST ITEM OF THE FORECAST IS HEADLINE FOR WIND CHILL ADV OVER MN
PORTION OF THE CWA. COLD WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEST...SPREADING TO THE ST CROIX RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z TUE. WILL
MENTION ADV FOR MN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING.

LEFTOVER FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN CWA...WILL INCLUDE OVER THE FAR
EAST INTO THE EVENING. SOME INDICATION OF MID CLOUDS COMING BACK
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH SWEEP OVER
NORTHERN MN. MAY DEVELOP A FLURRY AGAIN FAR NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE MAIN MESSAGE IS THE ARCTIC CHILL MOVING IN. 
TEENS BELOW LOOK LIKE A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA IF
CLOUDS CLEAR COMPLETELY...COMBINED WITH NEW SNOW COVER. 

SFC RDG MOVING OVER THE CWA INTO TUE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAVE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE GOOD
DECLINE INTO TUE NIGHT BEFORE TEMPS SLOW THEIR DROP IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CWA. TRIED TO SHOW SOME TYPE OF NON-DIURNAL TREND THERE
LATE. SOME WARMING/MODERATION ANTICIPATED FOR WED INTO FRIDAY AS
SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA THURSDAY. SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARMER AIR...BUT MOISTURE LACKING AND MOVES
THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY. MENTION SLGT CHC POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA THU WITH THIS.  

LONGER TERM INDICATES HUDSON BAY VORTEX RETROGRADES INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL DRAG MORE CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES TO MUCH FOR THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. THIS WILL BRING A TREND BACK
TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 
THE SYSTEM THAT CAUSED THE SNOW LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING...HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA...LEAVING MAINLY LOW VFR
CIGS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WHICH WILL
CAUSE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS 3-5SM IN LIGHT SNOW. POSSIBLE
IFR VSBYS CLOSE TO KRWF DUE TO SOME BLOWING SNOW. THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING ALLOWING SINKING MOTION AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL CAUSE CLEARING OVER ALL TAF
SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM CST TUESDAY 
     FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-
     DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
     KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-
     MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
     RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-
     SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW 
     MEDICINE.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

DWE/JPR