FXUS61 KPHI 060335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1035 PM EST SAT DEC 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL HEAD NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AT 10:30 PM, THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS CONTINUING TO
WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
PRECIPITATION HAD ALREADY ENDED IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA,
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE, AND IT SHOULD COME TO AN END
IN NEW JERSEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL START THE
PROCESS OF TAKING DOWN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.

THE CLEARING LINE WAS ALREADY TO THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY AND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AT 10:30 PM, SO WE WILL SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE WET ROADS AND WALKWAYS AND WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT, WE WILL ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO WEAK
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE EITHER WITH THE LOWER OF THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE OR A BIT BELOW DUE TO LEFTOVER SNOW COVER AND A COLD
AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM THE
MIDWEST. AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW, WE ARE PUT INTO THE
WAA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT CROSSES ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
THE COLD FRONT THAT EVENING. WE ARE EXPECTING TO GET SOME MORE
MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM THIS EVENT. DYNAMIC COOLING MAY OCCUR AS
THE RAIN FALLS CAUSING IT TO MIX AND POSSIBLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
NORTHERN AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE A STRAIGHT SNOW EVENT.

THE LOW CLEARS OUT BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH ALL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED 
TO END BEFORE THEN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND MOST OF 
FRIDAY BRINGING AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS IN A ROW TO THE REGION.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WE 
HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR PRECIPITATION, WHICH ONCE AGAIN MAY BE 
A MIXED BAG.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, 
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE BACK END OF THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND
WITH IT IMPROVING CONDITIONS. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF
AND PRETTY MUCH BE OVER AND DONE WITH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN ALONG WITH A GUSTY NW WIND.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS 
AND A NORTHWEST WIND AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE 
SYSTEM THEN SLIDES TO OUR EAST MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE 
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM 
MAY THEN ARRIVE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MARINE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. GALES ARE 
OCCURRING IN THE LOWER DE BAY AND GUSTS OF 33 KTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED 
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND SOUTH JERSEY COASTS. THE SCA WILL REMAIN OVER 
THE NORTHERN DELAWARE BAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE ALONG 
THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN OFF INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. 
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO NW TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY. SCA 
FLAGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AWHILE AFTER THE GALE FLAGS COME 
DOWN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STAUBER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...STAUBER
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O'HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O'HARA