FXUS64 KMAF 271126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
526 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY BACKING SLIGHTLY
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
EXPECTED BUT NOTHING BELOW 10KFT.

HENNIG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY DESPITE A COPIOUS
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED. A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY PROVIDING
THE CLOUD COVER BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK SCANTY AT BEST WITH
SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN
WITH WEAK LIFT PROGGED. WILL GO A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE ON
HIGHS TODAY (NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT) DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
SHIELD EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL
DEGREES TO ABOVE NORMAL AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME
DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT MAJOR SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW. THE EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE FELT AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN AS A STRONG 250 MILLIBAR JET POKES INTO
THIS REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AS LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW
INCREASES IN TANDEM WITH A STRONG SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE A MIXTURE OF
RAIN AND SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LOW FORECAST TRACK ON THE 00Z FRIDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THE SYSTEM FROM ACROSS NORTHERN 
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEST TEXAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS APPEAR TO HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL DUE TO BEING
CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND ALSO HAVING THE
ADVANTAGE OF HIGHER ELEVATION. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
COULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS AS WELL...WITH THE 
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. IT APPEARS THAT THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR DETERMINING ANY
POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE PLAINS BECAUSE THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
PROGRESSING EASTWARD LEAVING BEHIND THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
MODIFICATION FOR LOCATIONS NOT DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE LOW (EXCEPT
THE MOUNTAINS).

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE COLD AIR LATER IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND
IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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