FXUS62 KMFL 152308
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
608 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2009
.AVIATION...LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE
WAY TO A LIGHT LAND BREEZE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS COOLING
OCCURS. TOMORROW, LATE MORNING TO MID DAY SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST AND PUSH INLAND WITH A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AROUND 18Z. ~WINDS EXPECTED TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. /TINGLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
SINKING SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE APPROACHING OR ENTERING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND PASS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EASTWARD AND DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY LATE THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENTS ABOVE...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
EXPECTING MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASING TO A LIKELY CHANCE BY FRIDAY. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A LOW LEVEL JET COULD PASS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA FRIDAY WHICH COULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS THE
SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL JET AND MAIN REGION OF FRONTOGENISIS WILL
LIKELY BE OVER NORTH FLORIDA. SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE WE
WILL HAVE MORE CERTAINTY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA.
MARINE...
MAINLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY WITH AN INCREASE IN THE LOCAL GULF WATERS AND ACROSS
THE GULF STREAM. BY FRIDAY THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AND BY LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR 20 KNOTS...KEEPING THE LOCAL SEAS ELEVATED.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 68 80 69 79 / 20 40 30 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 82 70 79 / 20 30 20 50
MIAMI 73 83 71 80 / 10 30 20 40
NAPLES 67 82 64 80 / 20 30 20 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...47/RHG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
