FXUS61 KILN 252058
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
358 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES AND FRONTS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND
SHOWER CHANCES INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BRIEFLY
CHANGE THE RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDTIONS AND
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WEAK LOW AND FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING. BEST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTWEST CWA. TEMPS NEAR GUID. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SHOWING BREAK IN PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING
WITH COLD FRONT FROPA THURS EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH
AND BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING. LIGHT QPF AND NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY ACCUM WITH WARM GROUND AND SHORT DURATION
OF SNOWFALL. SOME FLURRIES/WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
BEFORE DRYING AND WIND DIRECTION CHANGE SETS IN. TEMPS AT OR JUST
BELOW GUID THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AT THE BEGINNING OF 
THE EXTENDED WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS 
NEAR AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON THURS...WITH 
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE 
NEXT DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY LATE SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH 
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. PREFER TO DISREGARD THE 12Z ECMWF 
WHICH SHOWS STRONGER UPPER ENERGY AND RESULTING CYCLOGENESIS OVER 
THE OHIO VALLEY. THINK A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION IS MORE REASONABLE 
WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE GFS ENS MEMBERS. SIDED CLOSE TO THE 
GFS ENS MEAN SOLUTION...WHICH BRINGS FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A CHANCE OF 
RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME SWITCH OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY 
NIGHT...BUT IF THE SYSTEM STAYS PROGRESSIVE AS EXPECTED...THIS WOULD 
ONLY BE A FEW FLAKES. 12Z GFS SHOWS DOUBLE-BARREL LOW CYCLOGENESIS 
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY MID NEXT WEEK...BUT THINK THIS IS OVER 
DONE AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. 

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT HAS RESULTED IN A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE AND
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS WORKING INTO WESTERN
OHIO CAUSING CIGS TO DROP INTO MVFR CAT. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT. SECONDARY SFC TROF/FRONT TO PIVOT FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z TONIGHT. BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN
SHOWERS WL OCCUR ACRS WEST CENTRAL OHIO. AT THIS TIME WL LIMIT MENTION
OF PRECIP TO VCSH DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE. NEXT TROF TO AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THURSDAY AFTN. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP TO 30 HOUR
KCVG TAF SITE. 

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS UP TO 22 KT TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. 

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MVFR
VISIBILITIES LIKELY AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
AVIATION...AR